Al's Liquor Store (Bm56+)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 5 at Carnarvon
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The pace map points towards a solid, but not frantic, tempo. There is no designated, high-pressure leader, but several runners possess tactical speed and are drawn to be involved early. Pressure is likely to come from the horses drawn middle-to-wide gates who will want to avoid being caught deep.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#8 Mexican Queen is the most probable leader from the rails draw. She could be challenged or joined by #6 Divine Judgement or #5 Traded Crown if they are aggressive in seeking a forward position from their wider gates.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#2 Fellafromdownunder is ideally drawn in barrier 5 to secure the box seat or a one-out, one-back position behind the speed. The runners who don't secure the outright lead from the group of Mexican Queen, Traded Crown, and Divine Judgement will settle in this handy division.
🏃♂️Midfield
#3 Shabalala should be able to hold a midfield position along the rail from barrier 2, saving ground. #9 Awesome Lily is likely to be snagged back from the wide gate (10) to find cover in a mid-pack position. #1 Play With Desire maps to settle in his customary midfield or slightly worse position. #10 War Class is a chance to push forward but could also slot into a midfield role with cover if the pace is too strong early.
🐌Backmarkers
#4 Sirveke and #7 Forbidden Apple consistently settle towards the rear of the field, with both having stewards' reports noting slow starts. They will likely be the last pair to settle.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly. On sand tracks, saving ground on the fence is typically an advantage, especially over a middle distance like 1700m. Horses drawn inside with tactical speed, like #8 Mexican Queen and #3 Shabalala, are positioned to take advantage of this by conserving energy along the rail. Runners caught wide without cover will be doing significantly more work.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Good 3, which for Carnarvon indicates a standard, dry, and relatively fast racing surface. With no adverse weather forecast, the track is expected to race true to its pattern, which generally favours on-pace runners. The firm surface will allow those with a tactical advantage to quicken off the turn, making it challenging for backmarkers to make up significant ground unless the pace is run at a genuinely strong clip.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The Carnarvon track is a unique oil-sand surface which often favours horses racing on or near the pace. The 1700m start provides a reasonable run down the back straight before the main turn, allowing horses drawn wider some opportunity to cross and find a position. However, being trapped three or four wide on this surface is a significant disadvantage. The long home straight gives all runners a chance, but if the on-pace runners get a soft middle section, they can be difficult to run down.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a BM56+ handicap, a grade where form can be mixed. The weight spread from 60.0kg (#1 Play With Desire) down to 52.0kg (#9 Awesome Lily) could become a factor in the final stages of the 1700m journey. Lighter-weighted on-pace runners like #8 Mexican Queen (53.0kg) could have an advantage, being able to maintain their speed for longer under less weight.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be run at a moderate to genuine tempo, set by #8 Mexican Queen from the inside and influenced by pressure from wider-drawn runners #5 Traded Crown and #6 Divine Judgement. This setup on the Carnarvon surface typically favours horses positioned just behind the speed who get an economical run. Backmarkers will need the pace to be stronger than anticipated and/or for the leaders to overdo it to have a strong winning chance. The race will likely develop into a sprint home from the 600m mark.
✅Most Advantaged
#2 Fellafromdownunder maps for a perfect race. Coming off two dominant wins, he is drawn ideally in barrier 5 to land in the box seat or one-one. This position allows Kate Pateman to conserve energy before launching a challenge in the straight, giving him the best possible tactical setup to win again.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#9 Awesome Lily faces a difficult task from barrier 10. Her racing pattern is typically midfield, and from the wide gate, she is at high risk of being caught three-wide without cover or being forced to settle further back than she prefers, leaving her with too much work to do in the straight. The designated backmarkers #4 Sirveke and #7 Forbidden Apple are also disadvantaged by the likely moderate tempo.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly points towards horses that can take up a forward position without spending too much energy.
- Primary Focus: #2 Fellafromdownunder is the standout map horse, ticking boxes for form, draw, and likely race position. #8 Mexican Queen is also in a prime spot from the rails draw with a light weight.
- Value & Risk: #5 Traded Crown represents both value and risk. If jockey Natasha Faithfull can expertly navigate the wide draw to find a spot on-pace without burning too much fuel, he is a major threat. The risk is being posted wide, which would ruin his chances.
- Against: Backmarkers #4 Sirveke and #7 Forbidden Apple appear to face a significant tactical disadvantage and would need the race to unfold perfectly for them. #9 Awesome Lily also looks to be in a very tough spot from the wide barrier and is a clear betting risk.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Play With Desire
Fellafromdownunder
Shabalala
Sirveke
Traded Crown
Divine Judgement
Forbidden Apple
Mexican Queen
Awesome Lily
War Class
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