Coffs Asphalt Showcase (Bm74)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 1 at Coffs Harbour
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map is loaded with early speed. The presence of at least two designated leaders, plus several on-pace runners drawn to be prominent, ensures a solid tempo from the barriers. - **#5 Change The Date:** A natural front-runner who consistently seeks the lead. From barrier 2, will use the inside draw to kick up and attempt to hold the fence. - **#7 Star Ambition:** Possesses excellent gate speed and has won multiple races by leading all the way. Drawn in gate 6, Kyle Wilson-Taylor will have to push forward to either cross Change The Date or sit outside it, applying significant pressure. - **#1 Markwell Dreamer & #6 Lady Tulessa:** Both have tactical speed and have drawn low. They will be forced to be prominent to take advantage of their barriers, adding to the pressure in the first 400m as they jostle for prime positions behind the leaders.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly. Early in the meeting, the inside ground is typically the shortest way home and an advantage. This benefits horses drawn in low barriers who possess tactical speed, such as #5 Change The Date, #6 Lady Tulessa, and #1 Markwell Dreamer. They can save ground and energy, which will be crucial given the strong pace and soft track.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Soft 6, which is a significant factor. A strong tempo on rain-affected ground is extremely testing and will find out any horse that isn't 100% fit or a genuine wet-tracker. Leaders will be hard-pressed to maintain their speed to the finish line, making them vulnerable late. This surface will enhance the chances of horses with proven form on soft or heavy ground, favouring stamina over a short, sharp sprint. #1 Markwell Dreamer's record, including a win on a Heavy 10, stands out.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1000m start at Coffs Harbour provides a run of approximately 350m to the home turn. This is a reasonable distance that allows horses with speed drawn slightly wide (like #7 Star Ambition) to cross over and find a forward position. However, the home straight is only around 350m long, which can favour horses who are on or near the pace at the top of the straight. The predicted strong tempo will give backmarkers a chance, but they will need to be launching their runs before the turn to be a winning factor.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a competitive Benchmark 74 handicap. The weight spread from 61.5kg to 53.0kg is notable. On a soft track over a 1000m dash, every kilogram tells, potentially aiding the lighter-weighted runners late in the race. The presence of two runners with no recent form (#4 Zoom Outcome and #9 Cupid's Kiss) adds a layer of unpredictability to the map, as their early speed and racing manners are unknown.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race projects to be run at a high-pressure tempo, set by #5 Change The Date and #7 Star Ambition. The combination of a strong pace and a Soft 6 track will ensure a true test of stamina over the 1000m. This scenario is likely to make the leaders vulnerable in the final 150m. The race is set up perfectly for a horse that can take a sit just off the speed, conserve energy, and has a proven ability to handle rain-affected going. Backmarkers will get the speed they need to run on, but the short straight and the need to make up ground on a tiring surface present a significant challenge.
✅Most Advantaged
#1 Markwell Dreamer (4) This horse is mapped for a perfect trip. From barrier 4, it can settle in the first four without spending any extra energy, stalking a hot speed. Crucially, it has demonstrated a strong winning ability on heavy ground, indicating the Soft 6 will be no issue. The race shape plays directly to its strengths, allowing it to pounce on the tiring leaders in the straight.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 Buck Pharoah (9) As a natural backmarker drawn wide, he faces a formidable task. He will likely settle last or second-last and will need to circle the entire field. While the strong tempo is in his favour, making up that much ground on a soft track in a short 350m straight is a low-percentage play. #11 Beer Baron (10) faces a similar difficult setup from his wide gate.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis points towards horses positioned just behind the speed as holding a distinct advantage. The predicted strong tempo on a soft track makes the front-runners a risk at the finish.
- Primary Focus: #1 Markwell Dreamer appears to have the ideal tactical setup. His ability to handle the ground, draw a good barrier, and sit off a strong pace makes him the horse that profiles best.
- Value/Exotics: #6 Lady Tulessa maps similarly to Markwell Dreamer and also has wins on soft ground. She could also enjoy a perfect run from barrier 3. The first-starter #9 Cupid's Kiss is a wildcard; if it shows any speed from barrier 1, it could run a big race at odds. Monitor betting for any positive leads.
- Risks: The leaders #5 Change The Date and #7 Star Ambition will ensure an honest race but may set it up for something else by engaging in a speed battle on a testing surface. Backmarkers like #3 Buck Pharoah are high-risk due to the track layout and their position in the run.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Markwell Dreamer
Single Touch
Buck Pharoah
Zoom Outcome
Change The Date
Lady Tulessa
Star Ambition
Cupid's Kiss
Beer Baron
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