Driscoll's Australia Ken Howard Showcase Cup
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 3 at Coffs Harbour
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map points to a solid, honest tempo rather than a frantic one. There is a clear designated leader, but enough on-pace pressure to ensure the race is run at a genuine clip, especially on the Soft 6 surface which will make it a true stamina test.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#8 Sound And Vision is the most likely to find the rail and lead. #7 Cenotes will likely work forward to sit outside the lead or in a trailing position.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This will be a congested part of the field. #11 Strobing will be working hard from the wide gate to slot in, potentially being caught three-wide. #2 Indifference maps for the perfect 'box seat' run from barrier 2, saving ground on the fence behind the speed. #13 Memumza Diva and #6 Sherriff Cody will push forward from their middle draws to be prominent. #9 Imperial Hilton is a query but from the inside gate is expected to hold a handy spot on the rail.
🏃♂️Midfield
#1 Barazin will likely be forced to settle here from his wide draw, aiming for cover. #10 Mr Plume draws well in gate 4 to get an economical run in mid-pack. #4 Twigman, a query first-up, will likely be ridden conservatively from the awkward gate and settle midfield.
🐌Backmarkers
#12 Call Me Artie is a natural backmarker and will settle near the rear. #3 Pure Deal, from the widest gate, has little option but to be taken back and will be looking to make a late run.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly without an inherent bias. However, on a Soft 6 surface, the inside lanes can become worn and chopped up as the meeting progresses. Jockeys may start to scout for superior ground slightly wider in the home straight. This could potentially nullify the advantage of an inside draw if a horse gets locked away on inferior going, while those fanning on the turn might find a better strip of turf to finish on.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 6 rating is a critical factor. It will ensure this 2000m race is a genuine test of stamina and brings proven wet-track performers to the fore. The ground will blunt the finishing speed of some and will make the task for any horse working hard early, like #11 Strobing, significantly more difficult. The likely genuine pace combined with the soft ground will make leaders vulnerable late if they are over-pressured, potentially setting the race up for a strong horse who has had an economical run in transit.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 2000m start at Coffs Harbour provides a run of approximately 400m to the first turn. This is a fair starting point, allowing some opportunity for horses drawn wide to cross, but it will require sustained effort. The track itself is known for its relatively tight turns and a short home straight of around 350m. This configuration typically favours horses positioned on or near the pace who can accelerate on the turn and establish a winning break. Backmarkers require a strong tempo and clear passage in the straight to be effective, which can be difficult to find.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As an Open Handicap, this Ken Howard Cup is a feature event. The weight scale, from 61kg for #1 Barazin down to 53kg for #12 Call Me Artie, will play a significant role. Conceding up to 8kg on a soft track over 2000m is a major challenge for the top weight. Lighter-weighted horses with proven soft track credentials will be at a distinct advantage in the testing final stages. The "Cup" status should also ensure committed riding tactics and a truly run race.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set up to be a true test of stamina. A genuine pace is predicted, led by #8 Sound And Vision with pressure from #7 Cenotes and the wide-drawn #11 Strobing. The combination of this tempo, the Soft 6 track, and the 2000m distance will stretch the endurance of every runner. The Coffs Harbour track profile favours those on-pace, but the conditions could play into the hands of a horse sitting just off the speed in a midfield position who gets an energy-saving run and can produce a sustained finish on the testing ground. Horses trapped wide or those that over-race will be severely punished.
✅Most Advantaged
#2 Indifference From barrier 2, Mitchell Bell has all the options. He maps to get the perfect, economical run, likely settling in the box seat or one-out, one-back. He will be sheltered from the pace battle, save crucial ground on the turns, and be poised to strike at the top of the short straight. This tactical setup gives him a significant advantage over many key rivals who are drawn awkwardly.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#11 Strobing His racing pattern of pushing forward is completely at odds with drawing barrier 12. He faces the unenviable task of either being fired out of the gates to work hard and find a position, or being caught three or four wide without cover for the entire trip. Either scenario will expend vital energy that he will need in the final stages on a soft track over this distance. #3 Pure Deal is also disadvantaged by barrier 13, forcing him to get a long way back.
💰Betting Considerations
The map strongly suggests focusing on horses drawn to get an economical run and who have proven form on soft ground. #2 Indifference stands out from a tactical perspective as the horse most likely to receive a winning run. Runners drawn wide who need to press forward, like #11 Strobing, present a major risk and appear to be tactical underlays. The genuine tempo on soft ground may make the leader, #8 Sound And Vision, vulnerable late. There could be value in considering horses like #6 Sherriff Cody or #10 Mr Plume, who are drawn to find a midfield position with cover and can finish strongly if the leaders tire. Any betting strategy should heavily penalise horses with poor wet track records or those facing a difficult run from a wide barrier.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Barazin
Indifference
Pure Deal
Twigman
Sherriff Cody
Cenotes
Sound And Vision
Imperial Hilton
Mr Plume
Strobing
Call Me Artie
Memumza Diva
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