Cetnaj Country Magic Merv Mercer Showcase Hcp (C2)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 5 at Coffs Harbour
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map indicates a genuine, if not strong, tempo is highly likely. There are several runners who either lead or race prominently, creating a scenario where the lead will be contested.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#4 Yalla is the most probable leader. #14 Secret Keeper is expected to work across from the wide gate to sit on its outside, applying pressure. #11 Dupont will be prominent from the inside, aiming to hold the box seat directly behind the speed.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#12 Harriet is well-drawn (6) to land in an ideal trailing position, potentially one-out, one-back. #2 Point Out should use the good draw (4) and Aaron Bullock's skill to settle just behind the leaders, saving ground. #15 Rock The Machine (11) and #10 Royal Rift (9) will push forward from their middle gates to find a handy spot, though they risk being caught three-wide without cover.
🏃♂️Midfield
#3 Suit Day should find a comfortable spot in midfield with cover from barrier 7. #6 Snitzenegger and #8 Bianco Nero are expected to settle mid-pack. #13 My Pepperjack is drawn awkwardly in gate 15 and will likely have to be restrained to find cover in a midfield position or worse.
🐌Backmarkers
#5 Ottoman Empire (16) and #9 Idol Shot (17) are habitual backmarkers drawn in the car park; they will settle at the rear. #7 Two Aye typically gets back and is likely to be in the second half of the field, looking to make a late run.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly. The shortest route is along the inside, giving an initial advantage to those drawn low who can hold their position. However, on a Soft 6 surface, the inside section of the straight can become worn as the day progresses, potentially leading jockeys to seek firmer ground wider out. This could negate the advantage of being on the fence in the home straight.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 6 rating will be a significant factor. It will ensure a testing mile, placing a premium on stamina and proven ability in rain-affected going. The genuine pace predicted will make it very difficult for leaders to sustain their effort to the line, bringing strong finishers into play. The conditions will magnify any fitness queries and will favour horses who can relax in the run and conserve energy for the long, gruelling home straight.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1600m start at Coffs Harbour offers a fair run of approximately 350m to the first bend. This gives horses with early speed drawn wide a chance to cross, but it requires significant effort. The long 400m home straight is a key feature, providing ample opportunity for horses to make up ground from the back, especially if the early pace is strong. The long straight will test the stamina of those who have worked hard early.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Class 2 Handicap, form can be inconsistent, but the "Showcase" status elevates the prizemoney and competitiveness. The handicap conditions mean weight could be a key factor on the soft ground. Horses that are well-weighted and handle the going will have a distinct advantage over those carrying top weight or those who prefer firm surfaces.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be run at a genuine to strong tempo, with #4 Yalla and #14 Secret Keeper ensuring an honest gallop. This setup will make it difficult for on-pace runners who do extra work to finish the race off. The long straight and soft track will give every horse its chance, favouring those who can obtain an energy-saving run in transit just off the speed. Backmarkers will have their opportunity if the leaders go too hard and the field opens up. The race will likely develop into a staying test down the long, soft straight.
✅Most Advantaged
#2 Point Out (4) Drawn perfectly to land in a beautiful position, likely a few pairs back on the fence, without spending any energy. Top jockey Aaron Bullock can bide his time while the pace unfolds up front. The horse has performed well on soft going and the race shape allows him to save ground and present with a strong finish in the long straight.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#14 Secret Keeper (13) While possessing the necessary speed, the wide barrier is a major obstacle. It will be forced to do a significant amount of work early to either cross to the lead or sit outside it. This expenditure of energy on a Soft 6 track over a mile is a recipe for being a spent force in the final 200 metres. #9 Idol Shot (17) and #5 Ottoman Empire (16) are also severely disadvantaged by their extreme outside barriers and get-back racing patterns.
💰Betting Considerations
This race shape strongly favours horses that can take a sit and have a powerful finish. Value is likely to be found with runners who map to get an economical run and have proven soft-track credentials.
- High-Confidence Profile: Horses drawn barriers 2-8 that can settle in the first half of the field without leading. #2 Point Out and #12 Harriet fit this profile perfectly.
- Risks: The leaders, particularly #4 Yalla and #14 Secret Keeper, are at risk of being "sitting ducks" late due to the early pressure on a testing track. Horses drawn wide who need to push forward, such as #15 Rock The Machine, are also a query to see out the trip strongly.
- Value Plays: Look for midfield or backmarker runners who have a history of finishing strongly and have shown a liking for wet tracks. A horse like #6 Snitzenegger or #7 Two Aye could run into the placings at odds if the pace completely collapses.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Point Out
Suit Day
Yalla
Ottoman Empire
Snitzenegger
Two Aye
Bianco Nero
Idol Shot
Royal Rift
Dupont
Harriet
My Pepperjack
Secret Keeper
Rock The Machine
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