Grant Bastian Showcase Hcp (C3)

With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly, giving all runners their chance. There is no inherent bias towards on-pace runners or a specific part of the track. However, on a Soft 6 surface, the inside lanes can become worn as the meeting progresses. Jockeys may look to scout for superior ground slightly wider in the straight, potentially negating the advantage of having hugged the rail throughout.

The Soft 6 rating is a critical factor. It ensures that the strong early pace will take its toll on the leaders, making them vulnerable in the final 200m. Stamina will be paramount, and horses proven on rain-affected going will have a distinct advantage. The conditions will significantly enhance the chances of strong closers who can sustain a long run, while potentially making it difficult for horses who need a firm surface to produce their best.

The 1200m start at Coffs Harbour provides a fair run to the first turn around the home bend. This gives runners with speed a chance to cross from middle gates, which supports the idea that #6 Helluva Teen and #7 Wild Sensation can find the front. However, it also means they will have to expend energy to do so. The Coffs Harbour straight is forgiving and offers ample time for runners to make their runs, which will suit those positioned just off the speed and the strong finishers, especially if the leaders have gone too hard.

As a Class 3 Handicap, this field features a mix of progressive types and established performers at this level. The presence of three runners with no recent form (#8, #10, #12) introduces uncertainty, as their early speed and racing patterns are unknown and could alter the map slightly. The handicap conditions mean horses carrying less weight will have an advantage late on the testing soft ground.