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Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 2 at Cranbourne
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map points towards a genuinely run race, without being breakneck. There are at least two designated leaders/on-pacers drawn inside gates who will ensure a true tempo from the outset.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#11 Highstrung is the most probable leader from the favourable draw. #12 Expulsion has the speed and inside barrier to challenge and will settle either in front or in the box seat.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
Expect #5 California Flyer to use his good draw to land in a perfect spot, likely one-out, one-back. #16 Flavius will push forward from the middle draw to settle handy. #6 Flash Alice has a decision to make from the wide gate; push forward and risk being caught three-wide, or take a sit just behind the main group.
🏃♂️Midfield
#8 Giggenbach, #13 Yankee Beau, and the first-starters #2 Popeye and #3 San Juan are all likely to settle in the main body of the field, seeking cover.
🐌Backmarkers
The wide draws dictate that #10 Weightless (16) and #15 Colour Circle (14) will almost certainly be snagged back to the rear. The unraced #1 Phineas (19) has no option but to go back from the extreme outside barrier. #14 Double Dah also profiles as a horse that will settle in the second half of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 8m, the track will play tighter, and the circumference is reduced. This typically advantages horses racing on or near the speed, as it can become congested for those trying to make runs from the back. Getting a position near the rail is beneficial, and horses drawn wide who can't cross will be forced to cover extra ground, which is a significant disadvantage, especially on a testing Soft 7 surface.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 7 rating will be a crucial factor. It will make the 1400m a true stamina test and will dull the finishing sprint of many runners. Horses who have proven form on wet ground will have a distinct advantage. The pace up front on this surface means leaders could be vulnerable in the final 100m if they overdo it. The inside section of the track may chop out as the meeting progresses, potentially favouring horses who can make their runs in lanes 3-4 and wider in the straight.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1400m start at Cranbourne offers a fair run of approximately 400m to the first turn. This allows horses with speed to cross, but the genuine tempo predicted from the inside draws will make it difficult for those drawn wide to get over without using significant energy. The home straight is only around 300m, which typically favours horses that are on-pace and travelling well on the turn, as it can be difficult for backmarkers to make up a large amount of ground.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Maiden Plate, the race is filled with inexperienced gallopers. This creates unpredictability as racing patterns are not yet firmly established. The presence of three first-starters (#1, #2, #3) adds further uncertainty to the map. Fitness and the ability to handle the pressure of a genuinely run race will be key differentiators.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be run at a genuine clip, with a cluster of on-pace runners drawn low ensuring no one gets an easy lead. The combination of this tempo, the Soft 7 track, and the rail out 8m creates a scenario that heavily favours horses drawn inside who can take up a forward position without burning too much fuel. They will be able to dictate the race and kick for home on the short straight. Backmarkers face a formidable task; they will need the pace to be unsustainable for the leaders and will require clear running in the straight to reel them in on testing ground.
✅Most Advantaged
#12 Expulsion (2) and #11 Highstrung (3). Both are drawn perfectly to control the race from the front. They have the tactical speed to use their inside gates, have recent form leading or being on-pace, and have both handled soft going. They should get the most economical runs in the race and be the ones to catch turning for home.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#1 Phineas (19). A first starter from the widest possible barrier on a wet track is a near-impossible task. Will be forced to the tail of the field and will need a huge performance to feature. #10 Weightless (16) is also in a very difficult position from a wide gate, with a pattern of getting back in his races. He will be spotting the leaders a significant start on a track that will likely favour those up front.
💰Betting Considerations
The speed map strongly points to on-pace runners drawn inside barriers (1-6). These horses will have a significant tactical advantage. Bettors should prioritize runners with proven form on soft or heavy tracks who can sustain a strong gallop over 1400m. There appears to be a clear disadvantage for horses drawn wide, particularly those who typically get back in the field. Any value opportunities may lie with a horse like #16 Flavius, who is drawn to get a positive run just off the speed and has handled a Soft 7. The key risks are the first starters and any horse without proven wet track credentials. The race shape strongly suggests opposing the backmarkers.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Phineas
Popeye
San Juan
California Flyer
Flash Alice
Giggenbach
Weightless
Highstrung
Expulsion
Yankee Beau
Double Dah
Colour Circle
Flavius
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