RMBL Investments Rising Stars Race (Bm64)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 6 at Cranbourne
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
There is a designated leader in the field, with several other runners possessing tactical speed who are drawn in middle-to-wide gates. This combination should ensure a true and honest tempo throughout.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#5 Flying Ace is the most probable leader. #15 Cheeky Blinders is the wildcard from barrier 1 and could elect to hold the rail and share the lead.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#3 Gwan So and #9 Barrington Manor will likely vie for positions just behind the speed. Gwan So is better drawn to achieve this economically, while Barrington Manor is at risk of being caught wide.
🏃♂️Midfield
This group will be led by horses drawn well to take a sit. #4 Always Hapi (4) and #1 Masterful (6) are drawn ideally to settle in the 'three pairs back' region with cover. #11 Angel Of The Sea (10) will also settle here, though likely on a wider path. The debutant #13 Fridge Monster (7) projects to land in this group.
🐌Backmarkers
The wide barriers will dictate tactics for several runners. #2 Miso (15), #6 Naval Force (14), and #10 Hotinherre (17) will be forced to settle near the rear of the field. #8 Adrett (18) has a forward pattern but from the extreme outside gate, the most likely scenario is to be restrained to find cover at the tail.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 8m, the track will play tighter, and the circumference is reduced. This can sometimes assist on-pace runners as the swoopers have less time in the straight to make up ground. However, on a Soft 7 track, the ground closer to the rail may be significantly worn by this race. This often creates a scenario where horses fan wide in the straight searching for better ground, potentially nullifying the advantage for the leader if they stick to the inside path. This setup can favour horses coming from midfield who can peel out into the better going upon straightening.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The official Soft 7 rating is a critical factor. The surface will be testing and will blunt the speed of runners who are not comfortable in the conditions. Horses with proven form on wet ground hold a significant advantage. The genuine tempo on soft ground will make this a stern test of stamina, and leaders who overdo it will be highly vulnerable late. Note that both #1 Masterful and #10 Hotinherre have prior stewards' reports for failing to handle wet going. Conversely, #4 Always Hapi, #8 Adrett, and #9 Barrington Manor have performed well on rain-affected surfaces. The race will likely favour strong finishers over pure speed.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1400m start at Cranbourne provides a fair run to the first turn, allowing horses with speed to cross over. However, it is not a long straight, and barriers wider than 10 are still a distinct disadvantage. The home straight is relatively short, which can favour horses who are on-pace and travelling well on the turn. The predicted genuine pace will ensure that the 1400m is a proper test of stamina, especially on the Soft 7 surface.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 64 handicap, the field is evenly matched. The weight spread is not extreme, but the top weight #1 Masterful carrying 60.5kg on soft ground will find the task challenging. The presence of two runners with no recent form (#13 Fridge Monster, #15 Cheeky Blinders) adds a layer of unpredictability to the speed map and overall race shape. Their performance, particularly from the inside gate for #15, could significantly alter the predicted dynamics.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set up for a genuine tempo on testing ground, with the rail out 8m. This should give every horse its chance, but the map and conditions point towards horses coming from just off the speed or midfield. The leader, #5 Flying Ace, will face pressure and will need to be a strong wet-tracker to hold on. The outside lanes in the straight are expected to be the superior ground. The race will likely develop into a war of attrition from the 400m mark, favouring horses with proven stamina on soft ground.
✅Most Advantaged
#4 Always Hapi (4). Gets a perfect map from the ideal barrier. He will settle midfield with cover, saving energy while the leaders set a genuine tempo. His proven ability on heavy ground is a major asset, and from barrier 4, Sheridan Clarke can choose to follow the rail or peel out to the better ground in the straight. The race shape is ideal for him.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#8 Adrett (18). This horse has the pattern and wet track form to be competitive, but the barrier is prohibitive. To get to its preferred on-pace position would require an enormous effort, likely leaving it with nothing for the finish. The alternative is to snag back to last, which is contrary to its racing style. #2 Miso (15) and #10 Hotinherre (17) also face very difficult tasks from their wide gates on testing ground.
💰Betting Considerations
Strategic focus should be on runners who combine a favourable map position with proven wet-track credentials. Horses drawn to get an energy-saving run in the first half of the race are at a premium.
- Value Opportunities: Horses like #4 Always Hapi who map for a perfect run behind a solid pace present a strong profile. #1 Masterful, despite the weight and query on wet ground, is drawn for a good run and could be a factor if it handles the conditions.
- Risks: The likely leader, #5 Flying Ace, is a risk. It will be forced to work to lead and could be a sitting shot for closers on the testing ground. Any runner drawn extremely wide, such as #8 Adrett, requires a large slice of luck and is a high-risk proposition.
- Market Watch: Close attention must be paid to betting moves for the unknowns, #13 Fridge Monster and especially #15 Cheeky Blinders. Strong support for #15 would suggest it has the speed to utilize the inside draw and would solidify the prediction of a genuine pace.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Masterful
Miso
Gwan So
Always Hapi
Flying Ace
Naval Force
Adrett
Barrington Manor
Hotinherre
Angel Of The Sea
Fridge Monster
Cheeky Blinders
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