A Touch Of Glass Group (Bm64)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 7 at Cranbourne
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map points to a genuine tempo with multiple runners intent on finding forward positions. The primary speed influences are clear, and pressure is likely to be applied from the outset.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#14 Diamanda is drawn to lead from the inside. #5 Eye For An Eye will press forward from barrier 6 and settle on its outside, ensuring a true tempo.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#4 Preservator is drawn perfectly in barrier 3 to land in the box seat, one pair back on the rail, enjoying an economical run. #1 Everything Counts will be forced to work from the wide gate (13) and will likely end up caught three-wide in a forward position, or press on to sit outside the leaders.
🏃♂️Midfield
#11 Tight Grip should find an ideal spot from barrier 4, settling midfield with cover. #10 Star Canto is drawn awkwardly in barrier 12 and risks being posted wide in a midfield capacity unless snagged back. #13 Vegas On Fire is an unknown but from barrier 5 is likely to land in a midfield position.
🐌Backmarkers
#12 Mon Etoile has a consistent pattern of getting back and will settle near the rear from barrier 9. #7 Ozzy The Equaliser also profiles as a horse that will settle in the second half of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 8m, the track will play tighter, and the field may become more compacted around the turns. This positioning often favours horses racing on or near the pace, as it can be difficult to make up significant ground from the back, especially if the inside lanes are holding up. Runners drawn wide will cover extra ground, a significant disadvantage over the mile on rain-affected going.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 7 rating is a critical factor. It will make this a demanding test of stamina and brings proven wet-trackers to the forefront. The genuine pace predicted will ensure that horses carrying big weights, like #1 Everything Counts (61.5kg), will find it very tough late. The surface will blunt the finishing speed of many runners, making it difficult for backmarkers to make up the required ground unless the leaders completely stop. There is a potential for the track to be chopped up, favouring horses finding wider, cleaner ground in the straight.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1600m start at Cranbourne provides a fair run of approximately 300m to the first turn. This is enough for horses with speed to cross, but those drawn wide without early pace risk being trapped deep. The long, sweeping home straight gives all runners their chance, but on a Soft 7 track, it can become a real test of stamina, often favouring horses who have had an energy-saving run.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a BM64 Handicap, the weight spread is significant. The 10kg difference between the top weight #1 Everything Counts (61.5kg) and the bottom weight #14 Diamanda (51.5kg) will be amplified by the Soft 7 conditions. The light-weighted on-pace runners have a distinct advantage. The presence of the un-raced #13 Vegas On Fire adds a layer of uncertainty.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The combination of a genuine pace, a Soft 7 track, and the rail out 8m sets the race up to favour horses who can race on the speed, handle the conditions, and have had an economical run. The pace from #14 Diamanda, #5 Eye For An Eye, and pressure from #1 Everything Counts should ensure there are no excuses for the swoopers, but the taxing conditions will make their task incredibly difficult. The race will likely be won or lost based on who handles the ground best and who has the most energy conserved turning for home.
✅Most Advantaged
#14 Diamanda (2) This horse's map is perfect. She is a natural leader drawn to hold the rail, carries a featherweight of 51.5kg, and will be on the freshest part of the track with the rail out. If she handles the Soft 7, she gets every conceivable tactical advantage and will be very difficult to run down.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#1 Everything Counts (13) Faces an enormous task. He must carry the top weight of 61.5kg on a testing Soft 7 track, will have to do a significant amount of work from the extreme outside barrier (13) to find a position, and will be vulnerable to a lighter-weighted challenger late. The race shape is set up entirely against him.
💰Betting Considerations
The speed map strongly suggests focusing on on-pace runners with proven wet track credentials and a favourable weight.
- High Confidence: #14 Diamanda receives all the favours from the map, barrier, and weights. If she has any ability on soft ground, she is the horse to beat.
- Value Opportunity: #4 Preservator is poised to get the perfect run from barrier 3, sitting just off a genuine speed. If the leaders cut at each other, he is in the prime position to strike and has demonstrated versatility.
- High Risk: #1 Everything Counts is a clear risk due to the combination of top weight, wide barrier, and taxing ground. Similarly, #10 Star Canto is in a difficult position from barrier 12 and will need luck to get a good run.
- Backmarkers: Backing horses like #12 Mon Etoile is a gamble. They will need the leaders to go too fast and stop, which is possible, but making up many lengths on a Soft 7 is a low-percentage play.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Everything Counts
Preservator
Eye For An Eye
Ozzy The Equaliser
Star Canto
Tight Grip
Mon Etoile
Vegas On Fire
Diamanda
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