Save The Date 'Trots On Grass' Sunday 24 August Gatton Racecourse (Bm60)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 8 at Gatton
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
There is significant speed engaged, particularly from wide barriers, which should ensure a contested and honest tempo. The two primary speed influences, #15 Rocky Rich and #6 Loaded Gun, are natural front-runners who have drawn barriers 11 and 9 respectively. They will have no choice but to press forward to avoid being trapped wide, which will inject strong and sustained pressure into the race from the outset.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#15 Rocky Rich is the most likely to commit and cross to find the rail. He will be joined or pressured heavily by #6 Loaded Gun, who will likely settle on his outside. This pair should dictate the strong early tempo.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#18 Calmer Karma maps to sit just behind the leading pair from its favourable draw. The two runners with no recent form, #13 Bee Two (2) and #12 Mishani Suspect (3), are drawn perfectly to take the box seat trail if they have the necessary gate speed.
🏃♂️Midfield
#9 Rubydoo (4) and #17 Rowdash (5) are drawn for economical runs in midfield with cover, tracking the genuine speed. #2 New Hampshire (8) will also look for a midfield position but risks being posted three-wide without cover if it can't slot in.
🐌Backmarkers
#7 Born Fearless and #14 Stenson Wallman are expected to settle in the second half of the field. From the extreme outside gate, the unraced #20 Grandeur Rose (13) is almost certain to be snagged back to the rear to find cover.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play evenly, although on a tight circuit like Gatton, inside draws remain an advantage as it is the shortest route home. Runners drawn wide will be forced to cover significant extra ground on the turn. Horses that can utilize an inside gate to settle in the first half of the field will have a tactical advantage.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 6 rating will be a crucial factor. It will test the stamina of all runners, particularly the leaders who are predicted to set a strong pace. Horses that have to burn energy early from wide gates will be highly susceptible late in the race. Proven wet trackers will be at a significant advantage. A soft surface can often lead to the inside section chopping out, potentially favouring horses who can make their runs three or four lanes off the rail in the straight.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1100m start at Gatton has a relatively short run into the first turn. This puts horses drawn wide at a distinct disadvantage if they lack high early speed, as they risk being caught deep for the entire race. The track's tight-turning nature typically favours on-pace runners who can kick strongly off the bend. The home straight is not overly long, meaning backmarkers need both a strong pace and clear running to overhaul the leaders.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 60 Handicap, there is a mix of established form lines and unknown quantities. The speed map is complicated by runners like #12, #13, and #20, who lack recent race data, adding a layer of unpredictability. The strong pace is typical for this class, but the handicap weights will be felt more acutely on the soft ground, especially for top-weights like #6 Loaded Gun (60.5kg) who may have to do work from a wide draw.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race projects to be run at a strong tempo, with significant pressure applied by wide-drawn leaders on a testing Soft 6 surface. This combination is highly likely to fatigue the front-runners in the final 200m. The race shape strongly favours horses that can obtain an economical run in midfield, conserve energy, and produce a strong finish. Backmarkers will get their chance due to the pace, but the tight Gatton circuit may make their task difficult. The race will likely be won by a horse coming from the second or third pair in running.
✅Most Advantaged
#9 Rubydoo (4) This horse maps for a perfect journey. Drawn barrier 4, jockey Bailie Baker can position it ideally in midfield, one off the fence with cover, stalking a hot speed. It will do no work while the leaders carve each other up. With a proven ability to handle soft ground and a tactical map that allows it to pounce on tiring leaders, it is set up with every possible chance.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#15 Rocky Rich (11) and #6 Loaded Gun (9). These horses are the architects of the predicted strong pace, but their wide barriers are their undoing. They must expend significant energy to cross the field on a demanding Soft 6 track. This early burn almost guarantees they will be vulnerable to closers in the final furlong. They face the classic squeeze of being trapped wide or going too fast in front, making them tactically compromised.
💰Betting Considerations
The speed map strongly advises against taking short odds on the likely leaders due to the pace pressure and track conditions. The focus should be on runners who map to get a soft run and have shown an ability to finish strongly.
- Value Opportunities: #9 Rubydoo (4) appears to be the runner with the most favourable setup and should be considered a prime contender. #17 Rowdash (5) is another who draws for an identical, economical run and could offer value. For those looking for a horse to run on, #7 Born Fearless (7) will appreciate the strong tempo and could be a threat if it handles the track.
- Risks: The key speed horses, #15 Rocky Rich (11) and #6 Loaded Gun (9), are significant risks and represent potential betting lays. Their map is fraught with danger, and they are prime candidates to be run down late. The runners with no exposed recent form (#12, #13, #20) are complete unknowns and should be treated with extreme caution.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
New Hampshire
Loaded Gun
Born Fearless
Rubydoo
Mishani Suspect
Bee Two
Stenson Wallman
Rocky Rich
Rowdash
Calmer Karma
Grandeur Rose
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