The Gong Spring Carnival Super Mdn Plate
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 1 at Kembla Grange
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The speed map points to a moderately run race. There are only two clear forward-running horses, and they are drawn to dictate terms without excessive pressure. The bulk of the field consists of horses that naturally settle in midfield or further back, reducing the likelihood of a high-pressure contest for the lead.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#8 Zeljko is the most probable leader from the rails draw. #7 Hot Luci will push forward to challenge for the lead or settle just off the pace in second. One of these two will dictate the race from the front.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
Whichever of #7 and #8 doesn't lead will sit here. #6 Faye Runaway has the versatility to settle in a handy position, likely one-off-the-rail with cover. #1 Highland Lad maps to sit just behind the lead pair, potentially getting a nice trail. #2 Le Chocolat is an unknown, but from barrier 2 with Zac Lloyd aboard, a positive ride to hold a position in the first four or five is expected.
🏃♂️Midfield
This is the most likely position for #4 Pour Benn on debut. Depending on the early tempo, one or two of the horses noted as 'On-Pace/Handy' might find themselves settling further back in this group.
🐌Backmarkers
#3 Legris and #5 Torpedo Ted are the two runners who will almost certainly be at the rear of the field. Legris is often slowly away and Torpedo Ted's pattern is to get back. They will be relying on a solid tempo and/or the leaders tiring late.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 3 metres from the 1100m mark to the winning post, the racing surface for the turn and the entire straight is on slightly fresher ground than the inside pad. On a Heavy 9 track, this can be a significant factor. Jockeys will likely aim to get off the fence in the straight, seeking what they perceive to be the superior going in the middle of the track. This could potentially disadvantage a horse like Zeljko if it gets locked on the rail and the inside lane is heavily chopped up, while advantaging those who can peel wider with momentum.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 rating is the single most important factor in this race. The going will be extremely testing and will blunt the speed of most runners. This puts a huge premium on proven wet track ability and stamina over 1600m. The overall pace will be slow in absolute terms, turning the race into a true staying contest. Runners who are not comfortable on heavy ground will struggle to accelerate and may be out of contention a long way from home. The conditions amplify the advantage for on-pace runners, as making up ground from the back in deep, holding turf is a monumental task.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1600m start at Kembla Grange is from a chute, providing a long and fair run of approximately 500m before the field hits the home turn. This long run-in negates the impact of wider barriers and allows all runners to find their natural position without being rushed. The key feature is the long, 420m home straight, which typically gives every horse its chance. However, on a Heavy 9 surface, this long straight can become a gruelling test of stamina, making it very difficult for backmarkers to make up significant ground on leaders who have had an easy time in front.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Maiden Plate, which introduces a level of unpredictability. Horses are inexperienced and can be unreliable, meaning the speed map is a guide rather than a certainty. Some may over-race or miss the start. However, the set-weight conditions favour the more promising types. In this field, the most significant factor is not the class but the proven ability to handle the demanding conditions, which several of these maidens have already demonstrated.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set up for the on-pace runners to dominate. A moderate tempo is highly probable, with #8 Zeljko and #7 Hot Luci controlling proceedings from the front. The Heavy 9 track will make it a severe test of stamina, and the long Kembla straight will feel even longer. Backmarkers face an arduous task to make any significant impact unless the leaders inexplicably go too hard. The race will likely be won by the horse who handles the conditions best and has the best tactical position turning for home. Jockeys will be looking to get to the middle of the track in the straight to find better ground.
✅Most Advantaged
#8 Zeljko. This horse has the perfect tactical map. From barrier 1, he can lead or box seat without spending any energy. He has consistently demonstrated the required on-pace racing pattern and, crucially, has outstanding form on heavy ground with placings on both Heavy 8 and Heavy 9 tracks. With a moderate tempo expected, he will be extremely hard to run down.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 Legris. His get-back racing pattern is a major negative in a moderately run race on a Heavy 9 track. He is often slowly away, which will only compound the problem, leaving him with too much ground to make up in the straight on testing ground. #5 Torpedo Ted faces a similar difficult task from the rear of the field.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly points towards on-pace runners with proven heavy track form.
- Primary Focus: #8 Zeljko is the clear standout based on the map, barrier, jockey, racing pattern, and superb wet track credentials. He represents the most likely winner if he runs to his established form.
- Risk Assessment: The main danger, #7 Hot Luci, shares a similar tactical advantage but her heavy track form is not as established as Zeljko's, which is a key risk. The debutants, #2 Le Chocolat and #4 Pour Benn, are high-risk propositions in such testing conditions and are best watched unless there is strong market support.
- Value/Exotics: #6 Faye Runaway could be included in exotic bets (Trifectas, First Fours). She has a placing on a Heavy 9 track, maps to get a reasonable run, and could finish off into a minor placing if one of the leaders falters. Backing the designated backmarkers is not a recommended strategy given the likely race shape.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Highland Lad
Le Chocolat
Legris
Pour Benn
Torpedo Ted
Faye Runaway
Hot Luci
Zeljko
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