NSW Jockeys Association Hcp (C1)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 2 at Kembla Grange
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map lacks significant early pressure. There is only one natural leader, and several key runners are either get-back types or first-starters who are unlikely to be bustled forward. The Heavy 9 track condition will be the biggest tempo-setter; jockeys will be intent on conserving energy for the gruelling home straight, ensuring the pace is not overly demanding.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#6 Lucky Bay is the standout and should dictate terms from the front.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#7 Teepee Princess is drawn perfectly in barrier 4 to stalk the leader, likely settling in the box seat or one-out-one-back. #1 Casablanca Express can push up from gate 5 to sit in the first four or five runners, potentially in a three-wide line with cover.
🏃♂️Midfield
The inside draws should see #5 Devils Daughter (1) and #3 Gwendie (3) hold positions midfield along the rail, saving ground. The runners with unknown patterns, #2 Arduous (7) and #8 Think Romance (6), are most likely to slot into this section of the field from their middle barriers.
🐌Backmarkers
#4 Super Sugoi (8), an unknown quantity from the widest barrier, is the most likely to be restrained at the start and settle towards the rear of the field to find cover.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +3m from the 1100m mark to the winning post, the racing surface in the straight is slightly shifted away from the most worn inside section. On a Heavy 9, however, the entire track will be saturated. This rail position can sometimes offer a slightly better strip of ground, but more often it will mean jockeys will be looking to fan across the track in the straight to find the least chopped-up going, likely from the centre outwards. It makes swooping from the back a viable option if the inside is a no-go zone.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 track is the single most critical factor. This will be a slog.
- Pace: The ground resistance will naturally slow the overall tempo, making it a true staying test at the mile.
- Stamina: Only horses with proven ability to handle heavy ground and see out a strong 1600m will be finishing off the race. Horses with a sharp, brilliant turn of foot will likely have that weapon nullified.
- Track Bias: By this stage of the day, the inside section of the home straight is likely to be significantly degraded. Expect jockeys to steer their mounts towards the centre or wider on the track upon straightening to find what they perceive to be the better going. This could give an advantage to horses that can sweep down the outside.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1600m start at Kembla Grange is situated in a chute, providing a long and fair run of approximately 600m to the home turn. This diminishes the importance of barrier draws for horses that don't need to lead, as there is ample time to find a position. The defining feature is the long 420m home straight, which becomes a significant test of stamina, especially on a Heavy 9 surface. This long straight gives every horse its chance, but on heavy going, it can be a significant advantage for on-pace runners if they have conserved energy.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Class 1 Handicap, the field consists of lightly-raced horses who have only won one race. This introduces variability and inconsistency, making speed maps less reliable than in higher-grade races. Some runners are still learning their craft. The presence of three horses with no recent form (#2, #4, #8) adds a significant layer of uncertainty to the race shape. The handicap conditions, particularly the light weight for #6 Lucky Bay, could be a decisive factor in the testing ground.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race projects to be a tactical, moderately run affair where proficiency in the heavy going and stamina will be the deciding factors. #6 Lucky Bay appears to get complete control of the race from the front. If the jockey can rate him well, he will give a strong kick on the turn and prove very difficult to run down on a track that will make it hard for backmarkers to make up extensive ground. Jockeys on trailing horses will need to be mindful not to let the leader get too far ahead. The race will likely develop into a grinding sprint home from the 600m mark, with riders fanning across the track to find the best ground.
✅Most Advantaged
#6 Lucky Bay (2) is set up perfectly. He is the sole leader, draws inside, and carries only 53.0kg. If jockey Holly Durnan can establish a moderate tempo, he will conserve energy and be the horse they all have to catch in the gruelling straight. This tactical advantage in these conditions is immense.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 Gwendie (3). While drawn to save ground, her established pattern is to get back in the field. In a moderately run race on a Heavy 9, making up a large deficit will be an extremely difficult task. She will need the leaders to stop badly to be a winning chance. The unraced #4 Super Sugoi (8) is also in a tough spot from the widest gate, likely having to settle last.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly points towards horses positioned on the pace. The combination of a moderate tempo and a Heavy 9 track is often a death knell for backmarkers.
- Primary Focus: #6 Lucky Bay gets all the favours on the map and must be considered a key chance due to the predicted race shape. #7 Teepee Princess is also mapped to get a perfect run and must be respected if she handles the conditions first-up.
- Value Proposition: #1 Casablanca Express offers tactical versatility. Has form on soft/heavy ground and if K S Latham can land him in a forward position with cover, he is fit and strong enough to handle the conditions and challenge the leaders.
- Risk: Backing any horse that will settle in the second half of the field is a high-risk strategy given the likely race dynamics. They will be relying on the pace collapsing, which does not appear likely. The unknowns (#2, #4, #8) are complete wildcards; any market support should be noted.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Casablanca Express
Arduous
Gwendie
Super Sugoi
Devils Daughter
Lucky Bay
Teepee Princess
Think Romance
Ready for an Edge?
Join our free newsletter for expert analysis and data-backed selections delivered every Wednesday and Saturday.