Jockeys Celebration Day Mdn Hcp
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 3 at Kembla Grange
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
This is a small field of maidens with no designated, high-pressure leader. The two most likely to go forward, Ninja and Menshevik, are drawn favourably and are unlikely to engage in a speed duel, especially on a testing Heavy 9 track over 1300m. The pace will likely be dictated by whichever jockey shows the most intent early, but it is expected to be run at a controlled tempo.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#3 Ninja is the most likely to press forward and attempt to control the race from the front, based on trial form. If it shows no intent, #6 Menshevik could inherit the lead from the low draw.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
Whichever of #3 Ninja or #6 Menshevik does not lead is expected to settle in the coveted "box seat" or one-out, one-back position. This appears to be the most advantageous spot in the race.
🏃♂️Midfield
#10 Lucky Monkey is expected to settle midfield on the rail, provided it begins on terms. #9 Fast 'n' Fancy projects to settle in the second half of the small field, likely with cover.
🐌Backmarkers
In a field of four, there are no dedicated backmarkers. The "midfield" runners will effectively be the rearward pair.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +3m from the 1100m to the winning post, the running line is shifted slightly away from the inside fence for most of the race. On a Heavy 9, this can be an advantage, as the ground on the fence can be the most worn and chopped up. Jockeys will likely aim to be 2-3 horses off the fence upon straightening to find the superior going. This slightly negates the advantage of an inside draw for a horse like #10 Lucky Monkey if it gets locked away on the inferior ground.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 rating is the single most dominant factor. The surface will be genuinely testing and will sap the stamina of all runners, making the 1300m feel much further.
- Pace: The heavy going will ensure the overall time is slow and will further discourage a fast early pace.
- Bias: There is a high probability of a track bias where the inside section is inferior. Runners will likely be looking for firmer ground wider out in the straight.
- Suitability: Horses with proven ability or breeding to handle wet, testing ground are at a significant advantage. It will be a true test of strength and will find out any horse that doesn't handle the conditions or see out a strong 1300m.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1300m start at Kembla Grange provides a fair run of approximately 300m to the first bend, allowing runners to sort their positions out without excessive pressure. The key feature is the long, sweeping home turn and the spacious 420m straight. On a fair surface, this gives every horse its chance. However, on a Heavy 9, the long straight can be a significant test of stamina, making it very difficult for horses to make up substantial ground from the rear.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Maiden Handicap, the race is filled with inexperienced horses whose racing patterns are not firmly established, adding a layer of uncertainty to the speed map. Tactics can often change from start to start. The handicap nature of the race means weights are relatively compressed, so the focus shifts more to individual ability, track condition suitability, and tactical position.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race projects to be run at a moderate tempo, heavily influenced by the Heavy 9 track. This scenario strongly favours horses positioned on-pace who can handle the testing conditions. The long Kembla Grange straight will be a gruelling slog, and any horse that has to make up significant ground will face a monumental task. The race will be won by the horse that combines tactical advantage with a genuine ability to plough through the heavy ground. The key will be which on-pace runner has the most stamina late.
✅Most Advantaged
#6 Menshevik. From barrier 2, jockey Tom Sherry has all the options. He can take the box seat behind #3 Ninja, ensuring an economical run just off a moderate pace. Crucially, this horse has a recent run on a Heavy 8 track, indicating it handles these conditions. It is perfectly mapped to be produced at the top of the straight and test the leader's stamina.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#9 Fast 'n' Fancy. Projects to settle in the second pair and will likely need to launch a run from midfield on a punishing Heavy 9 track. Making up the required ground will be extremely difficult unless the on-pace runners stop badly. #10 Lucky Monkey is also in a tricky spot; while drawn well, its history of awkward starts and potential to be stuck on the inside, potentially inferior ground, makes its task difficult.
💰Betting Considerations
- The analysis points towards an on-pace advantage. The winner is highly likely to come from the leading pair in running, #3 Ninja or #6 Menshevik.
- #6 Menshevik profiles as a strong contender due to the combination of a perfect map position, tactical versatility, and proven recent form on a heavy surface.
- #3 Ninja is the major variable. Its trial form is impressive, but it's unproven on a heavy track and in a race of this distance. If it handles the ground and gets an uncontested lead, it could prove hard to run down. Its performance will dictate the race shape for everyone else.
- Given the testing conditions and small field, focusing on the two on-pace runners in exotic bets could be a sound strategy. Any wager should heavily factor in a horse's ability to handle the Heavy 9 track.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Ninja
Menshevik
Fast 'n' Fancy
Lucky Monkey
Ready for an Edge?
Join our free newsletter for expert analysis and data-backed selections delivered every Wednesday and Saturday.