Bluestone Building Group Midway Mdn
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 4 at Kembla Grange
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
This prediction is based on a field with very limited exposed speed. The debutants are unknown quantities, and the raced horses have generally settled midfield or worse. The primary, and potentially sole, speed influence is #11 Miss Steffi, who has shown speed in trials. However, the combination of a wide barrier (11), a testing Heavy 9 track, and a 1300m journey will likely encourage jockey Chad Lever to seek the lead without burning excessive energy, rather than engaging in a high-pressure speed duel. The lack of any other designated front-runner should allow her to dictate terms. - **#11 Miss Steffi:** The key to the race map. Is expected to work across from the wide gate to lead or sit outside any unexpected leader. Her intent will dictate the early tempo. - **#13 Tulou:** From an ideal barrier (3), has the tactical speed to sit handy without pressure. Will likely look for a trail just behind the speed. - **Debutants (#1, #4, #8):** Complete wildcards. Any unexpected speed would have to come from one of these, but on a heavy track, most will likely be ridden for cover.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +3m from the 1100m mark to the winning post, the field will be racing on a strip of ground slightly away from the inside fence around the turn and into the straight. On a Heavy 9 track, this is often an advantage, as the ground nearest the rail can become heavily chopped up and inferior. This may benefit horses that are on-pace and one or two off the fence, as they will be on the preferred ground upon straightening. It can make it marginally more difficult for backmarkers who have to loop the entire field to get to the same ground.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 rating is the most significant factor in this race. This surface will severely test the fitness and stamina of all runners. The overall pace will be naturally tempered, and a horse's ability to handle genuinely bottomless conditions will be paramount over raw speed. Any horse without proven form or a strong wet-track pedigree is a major risk. Leaders and on-pace runners can gain a significant advantage if they can dictate a slow tempo, as making up ground from the rear on such a taxing surface is an exceptionally difficult task. The race will be won by the strongest, not necessarily the fastest, horse.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1300m start at Kembla Grange is located in a chute, providing a straight run of approximately 300m before the sweeping home turn. This configuration gives horses drawn wide, such as #11 Miss Steffi, a fair opportunity to cross the field and find a position without being trapped wide, especially if the tempo is moderate as predicted. The long 420m home straight typically allows all runners their chance, however, on a Heavy 9 surface, it transforms into a gruelling test of stamina. It will feel closer to 1500m, and horses will need to be strong through the line.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Maiden, the race is filled with inexperienced and unexposed horses. This inherently reduces the reliability of any speed map. Three of the six runners are on debut, making their racing patterns unpredictable and reliant on trial form and jockey instruction. Horses can race greenly, miss the start, or show unexpected speed. The outcome will be heavily influenced by which horse handles the occasion and conditions best, rather than established class.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is projected to unfold at a slow to moderate tempo, with #11 Miss Steffi the likely leader from a wide draw. The Heavy 9 track will turn this 1300m Maiden into a true war of attrition, where stamina and wet-track capability will trump all else. The map suggests a significant advantage for horses positioned on or near the pace, as the testing conditions will make it extremely difficult for runners to make up substantial ground from the rear in the long, punishing home straight. The race will likely develop into a staying test from the 600m mark.
✅Most Advantaged
#13 Tulou. From barrier 3, Dylan Gibbons can position this runner perfectly in the slipstream of the likely leader, conserving vital energy. This "box seat" run is the ideal map for a Heavy 9 track, allowing him to be poised to strike at the top of the straight without having done any extra work. If the horse handles the ground, its tactical setup is superior to all others.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#11 Miss Steffi. While she dictates the pace, she must use energy from barrier 11 to cross and lead. On a Heavy 9, this early effort can be very costly at the finish. She will be the target for the closers and is at risk of being a sitting duck in the final 200m. Additionally, any horse like #9 Headstream that settles midfield or further back faces a monumental task to reel in the leaders on such a deep and tiring surface.
💰Betting Considerations
This analysis points towards a race where tactical position and wet-track prowess are critical.
- Key Profile: Look for horses that map to be on-pace and have either demonstrated ability on heavy tracks or possess a strong wet-track pedigree.
- Primary Contender: #13 Tulou presents as the horse with the most favourable map. The combination of a soft run from an inside gate and a moderate tempo makes it a high-percentage tactical play, assuming it handles the Heavy 9.
- Risks: #11 Miss Steffi is a significant risk. Leading from a wide gate on a heavy track is a tough assignment, and she could be vulnerable if taking a short price.
- Value: The debutants (#1, #4, #8) are the wildcards. Any market support for a debutant with a strong sire/dam for wet tracks should be seriously considered, as they are unexposed and could represent significant value if they handle the conditions. The race is ripe for an upset if the main chances falter in the ground.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Ridgeback
All Saints
Spiritualistic
Headstream
Miss Steffi
Tulou
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