Moretti Constructions Mdn Plate
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 6 at Kembla Grange
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The pace map is dominated by one key runner, #18 Anarchist. Despite drawing the extreme outside barrier, all of Anarchist's positive performances in trials have come when leading or on-pace. From that draw, the only viable tactic is to press forward with urgency to find a position near the lead, which will inject significant and sustained pressure into the first 400m of the race.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#18 Anarchist is the standout leader. Expect this horse to be sent forward immediately from the gates to overcome the wide draw. It will likely cross to lead or sit outside the lead, but will do work to get there.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#4 Johnny is perfectly drawn in 6 to take a trail just behind the speed. Can land in the box seat or one-out, one-back, enjoying an ideal run behind the strong tempo.
🏃♂️Midfield
#14 Palazzo Dama should find a position in the running line from barrier 7, likely settling mid-pack. #5 Zousari will be forced to settle in a midfield position at best, but is more likely to be caught wide without cover or have to be restrained to find a spot with cover further back due to the wide alley (12).
🐌Backmarkers
#7 Charlina as a first-starter from a horror draw (17) will almost certainly be ridden for luck, settling near the rear of the field. #5 Zousari is also a high chance of ending up in the back half of the field to find cover from his draw.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 3m from the 1100m mark to the winning post, the effective racing surface in the straight is slightly narrower. On a heavy track, the ground closer to this rail position may begin to chop out as the meeting progresses. Jockeys may look to come to the middle or wider parts of the track in the straight to find superior ground, potentially favouring horses who can sweep from midfield over those trying to stick to the inside.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 rating is the most significant factor in this race. This surface will dull the speed of all runners and make the 1000m feel more like 1200m. It will severely test the stamina of any horse that over-exerts early. Horses with proven ability on wet ground, or those bred for it, will have a decisive advantage. The predicted genuine pace will ensure that fitness and wet track prowess are paramount, and leaders could be vulnerable late.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1000m start at Kembla Grange is from a chute, providing a straight run of approximately 400m before the single home turn. This gives runners, even those drawn wide with speed like #18 Anarchist, a chance to cross and find a position without being immediately disadvantaged. The long home straight at Kembla Grange is a key feature; on a Heavy 9 track, it will be a searching test of stamina, especially for leaders who have worked hard early.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Maiden for three-year-olds, the form is limited and reliability is low. Many runners will be encountering a Heavy 9 for the first time under race conditions, introducing a major unknown. Speed maps can be unpredictable as inexperienced horses can miss the start or show unexpected speed. The set-weights condition means that natural ability is the key factor, rather than handicap ratings.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be run at a genuine tempo, dictated by #18 Anarchist's need to cross from a very wide barrier. This will create a pressure cooker scenario on a testing Heavy 9 track. The race shape strongly suggests that horses who do work early will struggle to finish off in the long, punishing Kembla Grange straight. The winner is likely to be a horse who can handle the wet ground and gets a patient ride, saving energy before launching a challenge in the straight. The race will not be a sit-and-sprint; it will be a true test of stamina.
✅Most Advantaged
#4 Johnny (4) From barrier 6, Johnny is drawn to get the perfect tactical run. He can settle just off a strong tempo without spending any extra energy, likely landing in the 'one-one' or box seat. Given the predicted race shape, having this energy reserve for the straight on a Heavy 9 track is a significant strategic advantage.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#18 Anarchist (18) While this horse dictates the map, it is also a victim of it. The energy required to cross a large field from barrier 18 and lead on a Heavy 9 track is immense. This sets up a scenario where the horse is highly likely to be vulnerable over the final 200m. #5 Zousari is also disadvantaged by drawing wide without early speed, facing the prospect of being caught deep without cover or settling too far back.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis points towards a race where early speed could be a negative. The key is to find a horse with proven or likely wet track ability that can settle in the first half of the field with cover.
- High Confidence: Focus on runners who can take a sit behind the speed. #4 Johnny fits this profile perfectly and is the horse most advantaged by the map.
- High Risk: Be extremely wary of #18 Anarchist. The combination of the wide barrier, the need to work hard, and the Heavy 9 track makes this horse a significant risk, despite dictating the pace.
- Value Opportunities: Look for horses like #14 Palazzo Dama who draw to get a midfield run. If she handles the conditions, she will be finishing when the leaders are tiring. Any runner with a strong wet track pedigree, regardless of mapped position, should be considered an upgrade due to the conditions.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Johnny
Zousari
Charlina
Palazzo Dama
Anarchist
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