City Motors Provincial (Bm68)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 7 at Kembla Grange
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of multiple horses who prefer to race on-pace points towards a solid tempo. The Heavy 9 track conditions will ensure the race is a true stamina test, even if the early fractions are not frantic. The pressure for forward positions will likely be consistent from the barriers to the home turn.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#1 Mafia is the most likely to lead from the inside draw. Expect #10 Prince Aurelius to press forward and sit on his outside, creating a genuine contest for the premier position.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#3 Mr Rock It will likely aim to cross into a one-off position but could be caught three-wide if he can't slot in. #5 Cryptonic will likely push forward from the wide gate to find a position in the running line, just behind the leaders.
🏃♂️Midfield
#6 Cani Cancan maps to get a nice trail in a midfield position. #4 Los Padres, who has a history of being slow away, is expected to settle in the second half of the field, likely mid-pack with cover.
🐌Backmarkers
#11 Smart Serenade, with no recent form and the widest barrier, is the natural backmarker. The stable will likely instruct the jockey to ride conservatively and find a position at the rear of the field to assess the race shape.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out +3m from the 1100m to the winning post, the running line is shifted slightly away from the most worn inside section. On a Heavy 9 track, this is significant. By this stage of the day, the inside ground is likely to be heavily chopped up and inferior. Jockeys will be looking to angle towards the centre of the track in the straight to find less-trafficked, better ground. This negates some of the advantage of an inside barrier and may advantage horses who can peel wide with momentum.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 track rating is the single most dominant factor in this race. It will turn the 1200m contest into a searching test of stamina and wet-track capability. Horses without proven form on heavy ground will be severely disadvantaged. The pace will feel more taxing, and leaders will be vulnerable to strong, proven wet-track finishers. The winner will need to have handled the conditions before or be exceptionally strong. Prince Aurelius is a proven Heavy 9 winner, while Mafia, Mr Rock It, and Los Padres have all placed on heavy ground and warrant respect.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1200m start at Kembla Grange provides a fair run of approximately 400m to the home turn. This gives horses drawn wider, like #3 Mr Rock It and #5 Cryptonic, a reasonable opportunity to cross and find a position without being rushed. The key feature is Kembla's long, spacious home straight (approx. 420m). On a Heavy 9 surface, this straight will feel even longer, providing ample time for horses to make their runs, but also exposing any leader who has gone too hard or cannot handle the testing ground.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 68 handicap, this race brings together a field of well-exposed provincial-class gallopers. The handicap conditions are crucial, particularly on a heavy track. The significant weight difference between the top weight #3 Mr Rock It (60.5kg) and the lightweight #10 Prince Aurelius (52.0kg) is a major tactical consideration. The 8.5kg advantage to Prince Aurelius could be a decisive factor in the final 200m on such a taxing surface.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be run at a genuine tempo with #1 Mafia and #10 Prince Aurelius controlling the front. The Heavy 9 track condition is the paramount variable, making this a true test of strength and stamina over the final 400m. The long Kembla straight and the likely off-rail pattern will give runners from midfield a chance to launch their claims, provided they are handling the ground. The key to winning will be a combination of tactical position, proven heavy-track ability, and the strength to finish off the race powerfully.
✅Most Advantaged
#10 Prince Aurelius maps to get a forward position, potentially controlling the race from outside the lead. He is a proven winner on a Heavy 9 surface and, most critically, benefits from a massive 8.5kg weight relief from the top weight. If he is fit enough first-up, this combination of a forward map, a light weight, and proven heavy-track prowess gives him a significant tactical advantage.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 Mr Rock It faces a difficult task. He is burdened with the top weight of 60.5kg on a taxing Heavy 9 track and must navigate a path from a wide barrier (8). Pushing forward risks being caught wide without cover, while easing back means spotting the leaders a significant start that will be difficult to reel in on this ground. The combination of weight, barrier, and the likely race shape places him at a distinct tactical disadvantage.
💰Betting Considerations
- Prioritize Proven Performers: Focus exclusively on horses with demonstrated form on Heavy tracks. The Heavy 9 rating will find out any horse that cannot handle it. #10 Prince Aurelius stands out as a previous H9 winner.
- Weight is Critical: The significant weight advantage for #10 Prince Aurelius cannot be overstated on this surface and must be a key consideration.
- Map vs. Conditions: While #1 Mafia has a favourable map from barrier 3, leading on a Heavy 9 is a tough assignment. He could be vulnerable to a stronger, weighted horse late.
- Value Opportunities: A horse like #4 Los Padres handles the wet and will be finishing on. If the on-pace runners overdo it, he could represent value by running into the placings from midfield.
- High-Risk Runners: #3 Mr Rock It (weight and barrier) and #11 Smart Serenade (unknown form, wide gate, heavy track) present too many risks to be considered reliable betting propositions.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Mafia
Mr Rock It
Los Padres
Cryptonic
Cani Cancan
Prince Aurelius
Smart Serenade
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