Wests Illawarra (Bm64)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 8 at Kembla Grange
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
This race lacks significant early speed pressure. The map points to a single, clear leader who should be able to dictate terms.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#11 Call Me Magnifique is expected to find the front comfortably and dictate the race on its own terms.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#6 Exceed Perfection is the most likely to use its inside barrier (4) to settle in a forward position, possibly trailing the leader in the box seat. #2 Clubman may be forced to sit a touch closer than usual from the wide gate (9) to avoid being caught deep, but will likely aim for a one-off position in the front half.
🏃♂️Midfield
This is where the bulk of the field should settle. #2 Clubman is a natural miler. #5 Your Not The Boss typically settles in the second half of the field and will look for cover from its wide draw (11).
🐌Backmarkers
#12 Kirkuk is a designated backmarker who consistently settles near the tail. #3 Irish Bliss is resuming with no form and has drawn the widest gate (13), making a rearward position almost certain.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +3m from the 1100m mark to the winning post, the running line will be slightly off the fence around the turn and down the straight. On a Heavy 9 track, this is often a significant factor. The ground on the inside, which is the True position, can be heavily chopped up and inferior by this stage of the day. This setup should advantage horses that can find clear running in the 3-5 wide lanes in the straight, potentially negating some of the benefit of a low barrier draw if a horse gets locked away on the tired ground.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 rating is the single most critical factor in this race. This surface will severely test the stamina of every runner and blunt acceleration. Horses must have proven ability to handle deep, rain-affected ground to be competitive. The slow tempo combined with the heavy track means fitness and a genuine liking for the conditions will be more important than a sharp turn of foot. It's a significant red flag for any runner with a poor wet track record, such as #12 Kirkuk, whose form explicitly notes a failure on Heavy 9 ("Failed to handle going").
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1400m start at Kembla Grange provides a fair run down the back straight before a sweeping turn into the home straight. This long, open straight is typically a significant advantage for horses with strong finishes. However, on a Heavy 9 surface, this straight becomes a gruelling test of stamina. A slow pace, as predicted here, can turn the race into a sprint from the 600m mark, which would heavily favour the on-pace runners who have conserved energy. It makes the task for backmarkers, who need to sustain a long run in testing ground, extremely difficult.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 64 Handicap, the field contains a mix of proven performers at this level and others who are less exposed. The presence of two runners, #3 Irish Bliss and #6 Exceed Perfection, without any recent form adds a layer of uncertainty. In these conditions, weight can be a significant leveller; however, the tactical advantages conferred by the speed map are likely to outweigh minor weight differences.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race is set up for a tactical, slowly run affair. The combination of a lone, uncontested leader and a Heavy 9 track creates a powerful scenario favouring on-pace runners who can handle the conditions. The race will likely be won or lost based on which horse has conserved the most energy for the gruelling final 400m slog. Backmarkers face an almost insurmountable task; they will be spotting the leaders a significant start off a slow tempo and will struggle to make up the necessary ground in the deep, testing conditions. The key dynamic is whether the leader, #11 Call Me Magnifique, can handle the Heavy 9 track over 1400m. If it can, it will be incredibly hard to run down.
✅Most Advantaged
#11 Call Me Magnifique This horse gets a dream tactical setup. It is the sole speed in the race and should get an uncontested lead from a good barrier. This allows its jockey to control the race, set slow fractions, and conserve energy for the tough home straight. Its chances are directly tied to its ability to handle the heavy ground, but from a purely tactical perspective, its map is perfect.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#12 Kirkuk This horse faces a trifecta of negative factors. It is a natural backmarker in a race predicted to have a slow pace. It has drawn a wide barrier (12), ensuring it will be at the rear of the field. Most critically, its form includes a specific failure on a Heavy 9 track. This combination makes its task exceptionally difficult. #3 Irish Bliss is also highly disadvantaged by the extreme outside draw with no recent form.
💰Betting Considerations
The race is built around #11 Call Me Magnifique. If it is assessed as a strong wet tracker, it is the clear horse to beat based on the map. The primary risk is that the Heavy 9 track saps its stamina late.
Value may lie with #6 Exceed Perfection. As an unknown quantity resuming, any positive market support could be significant. Its inside draw allows it to get a perfect, energy-saving run behind the leader. If it handles the wet, it is poised to strike.
It is advisable to be strongly against the backmarkers, especially #12 Kirkuk, given the combination of the pace map and its proven dislike for heavy tracks. The risk of backing horses to make up significant ground in these conditions is very high. The lack of recent form for two runners suggests a cautious approach is warranted.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Clubman
Irish Bliss
Your Not The Boss
Exceed Perfection
Call Me Magnifique
Kirkuk
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