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Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 6 at Eagle Farm
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of multiple runners who prefer to be forward, combined with awkward barrier draws for some of them, points towards a contested early speed. There are at least four horses that will be looking for a prominent position.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#9 Vivika (1) and #1 Pretty Dubious (4) appear the most likely to dispute the lead from their inside draws. Expect #6 Stiktodascrypt (16) to press forward from the outside and sit on their flank, likely three-wide without cover.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#4 Spanish Treasure (11) will attempt to cross over and find a position one-off the fence, just behind the leading group. #11 Argentum Rock (6) is ideally drawn to land in the box seat or one-out, one-back. #13 Deceitful Miss (3) should secure a perfect, ground-saving run on the fence just behind the speed.
🏃♂️Midfield
#10 Wanted Hillbilly (8) and #8 Stylish Joker (9) draw to settle in the middle of the pack with cover. From the good draw, #2 Special Artist (2) can land midfield on the rail, saving ground before looking for a run.
🐌Backmarkers
#5 Alpha Sofie (13) and #12 Australasia (15) both have get-back racing patterns and have drawn wide gates. They will settle at or near the rear of the field and will be relying on a strong pace to bring them into the race late.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +3m, the track should play fairly evenly. This rail position at Eagle Farm does not typically create a significant bias towards on-pace runners or a specific part of the track. The long, wide straight will allow jockeys to fan out and find the best ground if necessary, ensuring a fair contest for all running styles provided the pace is suitable.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is a Good 4, which is the ideal racing surface. This will result in a fast, true tempo and should not favour any particular running style due to track condition alone. The firm surface will allow horses to travel at their top speed, meaning the early pace pressure will be genuinely testing on stamina. Backmarkers will have their chance to make up ground if the leaders feel the pinch late, as there won't be a wet track to blunt their finishing speed.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1200m start at Eagle Farm is out of a chute, providing a long and fair run of over 600m to the home turn. This gives horses drawn wide a theoretical chance to cross, but it often requires sustained effort. The key feature is the long, 434m home straight. On a Good 4 track, this straight gives all runners their chance, but the predicted strong tempo will be crucial. If the leaders go too hard, it will set the race up perfectly for horses who have had a softer run and can produce a strong, sustained finish down the long straight.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is an Open Handicap for 3-year-olds, which brings together a field of varying experience and form lines. The handicap nature of the race aims to level the playing field, but progressive types can often be ahead of the handicapper. The genuine to strong pace predicted will ensure this is a true test at 1200m, sorting out the pretenders from the genuine contenders.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race is defined by the significant pace pressure expected from multiple sources, particularly from the on-pace runners drawn wide who are forced to push forward. The leaders are unlikely to get an easy time in front. This setup strongly advantages horses drawn to get an economical run in behind the speed, conserving energy for Eagle Farm’s demanding home straight. The race is likely to be won by a horse coming from the second or third line of the running order. Backmarkers will get their chance, but will need to be the superior animal to round up the entire field.
✅Most Advantaged
#13 Deceitful Miss (3) is mapped to get the perfect run of the race. From barrier 3, it can settle midfield on the fence, completely sheltered from the hot early pace. While the leaders burn fuel, it will be saving every inch of ground. If splits appear in the straight, it will be poised with a full tank of energy to exploit them, making it the horse with the most favourable tactical setup.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#6 Stiktodascrypt (16) faces a monumental task from the outside barrier. Its on-pace pattern means it will likely be forced to cover significant extra ground, working hard for the entire first half of the race without cover. This is a very low-percentage position at Eagle Farm and will severely compromise its finishing effort. #4 Spanish Treasure (11) faces a similar, albeit slightly less severe, challenge.
💰Betting Considerations
The speed map suggests that betting against the on-pace horses drawn wide, #6 Stiktodascrypt and #4 Spanish Treasure, could be a profitable strategy as they are likely to be over-bet based on form but face a severe tactical disadvantage. The value lies with runners mapped for a perfect trip. #13 Deceitful Miss and #11 Argentum Rock are drawn to get ideal runs and should be considered strong chances at what may be reasonable odds. The backmarkers, #5 Alpha Sofie and #12 Australasia, are blowout chances if the pace completely collapses, but they will require a lot of luck in running. Focus on horses that can sit just off the speed and pounce.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Pretty Dubious
Special Artist
Spanish Treasure
Alpha Sofie
Stiktodascrypt
Stylish Joker
Vivika
Wanted Hillbilly
Argentum Rock
Australasia
Deceitful Miss
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