TAB We're On (Bm70)

With the rail out 10m, the circumference of the track increases, and the turn becomes slightly sharper. This often advantages horses racing on the pace, as those swooping from the back have to cover more ground and sustain a longer run. It can also lead to the field fanning wider in the straight as jockeys search for what they perceive to be the better ground away from the inside. This can create traffic issues for horses like #4 Exit, who will be looking for inside runs from the rear.

The track is rated a Good 4 with fine weather, presenting a perfect racing surface. This will ensure a fair contest where track bias is minimal. However, on a firm surface with a moderate tempo, leaders and on-pace runners who can quicken off the front are often advantaged. The conditions will not test stamina in the same way a wet track would, further favouring horses who can produce a sharp turn of foot over those who are pure stayers.

The 1410m start at Flemington provides a long run down the side of the course into the sweeping home turn. This extended run allows runners drawn wide time to find a position without being rushed. However, the key feature is the long 450m home straight, which typically gives every horse its chance, particularly those with a strong finishing kick. In a race with a predicted moderate tempo, this long straight can turn into a dash home, which can make it difficult for backmarkers to make up the required ground if the leaders get a soft time in front.

As a Benchmark 70 Handicap for 3-year-olds, the race features developing horses. This can lead to form fluctuations and unexpected improvements. The handicap conditions place #1 Hillier at the top of the weights with 60.0kg, which could be a telling factor over the final 200m against lighter-weighted rivals, especially if he is forced to chase from an on-pace position.