Vrc.Com.Au Sprint (Bm74)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 3 at Flemington
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map is loaded with genuine speed influences who are likely to press forward. There are two designated leaders who will ensure a solid tempo from the outset. The presence of other on-pace runners drawn in middle to wide gates will add to the pressure as they seek to find positions, preventing the leaders from getting any soft sectionals.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
The lead will be hotly contested. #4 Raikoke and #10 Prevailed are the two most likely to push on and duel for the front. Expect them to set a strong, genuine tempo down the straight.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#2 Capper Thirtynine and #11 Gronkowski will be forced to press forward from their wide alleys and will likely settle in the first few, possibly one or two off the fence. From better draws, #5 Talbragar (8), #13 Our Couver (4) and #14 Shaime (1) are mapped to get perfect runs, stalking the speed without spending extra energy. Shaime, from the inside gate, could land in the coveted box seat.
🏃♂️Midfield
This group will look to find cover behind the strong tempo. #9 Excel And Fly (5) and #17 Zethus (3) are drawn to get economical runs just behind midfield. From wider gates, #1 Bizot (17) and #6 De Bergerac (12) will likely be ridden patiently to find a position with cover. #15 She's Pretty Rich has little choice from barrier 20 but to restrain and find a spot in the running line, likely worse than midfield.
🐌Backmarkers
A distinct group will settle at the rear. #8 The Shaper (18), #16 Riverina Power (13) and #18 Oak Park Rebel (10) are all natural backmarkers who will be relying on the strong pace to tire out the leaders, allowing them to launch their runs late.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 10m for the entire circuit, the track should play very fairly. This position often provides fresh ground for horses to run on, particularly in the middle to outer sections of the straight. It can sometimes disadvantage horses hard-up against the inside rail if that strip becomes more worn, but generally, it ensures the whole width of the track is in play. Jockeys will be able to guide their mounts to the perceived "fast lanes" without major impediment, giving all runners their chance.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
A Good 4 track with a fine forecast guarantees a firm and fast racing surface. This will allow for slick times and ensures the race is a true test of ability without any bias from wet ground. The predicted strong tempo on a dry track will mean the leaders will be running quick sectionals, setting the race up perfectly for strong finishers, provided they are close enough to strike. There will be no excuses related to the surface.
📏Track & Distance Factors
Racing down the Flemington 1200m "Straight Six" is a unique test. There are no turns, so barriers are less about getting a position for a corner and more about finding cover and the right part of the track. The long, sustained run means horses need to be able to sprint for a significant period (600m+). A strong pace, as predicted, will make this a genuine test of stamina at the end of 1200m, sorting out the genuine sprinters from those who can't sustain the pressure.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 74 handicap, this is a competitive race with a field of well-exposed horses. The handicap nature of the race, with weights spread from 62.0kg to 57.0kg, is designed to level the playing field. The solid tempo typical of these competitive sprints will ensure the race is run truly, and fitness and class will be the deciding factors in the final stages.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is defined by a predicted strong and contested pace set by #4 Raikoke and #10 Prevailed. This high-pressure scenario will make it very difficult for on-pace runners who are forced to work early from wide barriers, such as #2 Capper Thirtynine and #11 Gronkowski. The race shape strongly favours horses that can obtain an economical run just off the speed or those strong-finishing backmarkers who can handle the long Flemington straight. The key will be getting cover behind the speed duel and producing a sustained run over the final 400m.
✅Most Advantaged
#13 Our Couver (4) This horse is mapped to get the perfect run. Drawn ideally in barrier 4, jockey Blake Shinn can have him settled just behind the hot speed, saving ground and energy. With a strong tempo to run at, he will be perfectly poised to launch his challenge in the straight without having done any early work. #14 Shaime (1) from the inside barrier is in a similar, highly advantageous position to stalk the leaders.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#15 She's Pretty Rich (20) Drawing the extreme outside barrier is a nightmare scenario for this on-pace galloper. The options are to burn significant energy in a likely futile attempt to cross a large field with speed drawn inside her, or to be snagged back to the rear, which is contrary to her racing pattern. Both options severely compromise her winning chances. Other on-pacers drawn wide like #4 Raikoke (15) and #11 Gronkowski (16) also face a tough task.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis points towards horses that can take a sit and finish strongly. The market may over-value the on-pace runners drawn wide due to their positive racing patterns, but the map suggests they are highly vulnerable to the pace pressure. The betting value likely lies with the runners drawn to get an economical midfield trail.
- Focus: Target horses like #13 Our Couver and #14 Shaime who receive ideal maps.
- Value/Exotics: Consider strong backmarkers like #16 Riverina Power and #18 Oak Park Rebel for exotics, as the race is set up for them to be running on into the placings if the leaders capitulate.
- Risk: Be very cautious of #15 She's Pretty Rich from the wide draw. Also, be wary of the leading division, as the pressure of the duel could leave them vulnerable late. The unknown factor of #3 Epic Proportions is a risk; a market watch is advised.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Bizot
Capper Thirtynine
Epic Proportions
Raikoke
Talbragar
De Bergerac
The Shaper
Excel And Fly
Prevailed
Gronkowski
Our Couver
Shaime
She's Pretty Rich
Riverina Power
Zethus
Oak Park Rebel
Ready for an Edge?
Join our free newsletter for expert analysis and data-backed selections delivered every Wednesday and Saturday.