Jockeys Celebration Day (Bm84)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 4 at Flemington
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of two dedicated leaders, #1 South of India and #6 Call To Glory, ensures a legitimate tempo. Neither horse typically takes a sit, and drawn in low barriers (1 and 2), they will have every intention of using their natural gate speed to control the race from the front. While they may not engage in a cut-throat duel, their desire to lead will prevent the pace from being slow or moderate.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#1 South Of India (2) and #6 Call To Glory (1) are the clear speed influences. They are expected to jump straight to the front and dictate terms as a pair down the straight.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#7 Subliminal (8) has the tactical speed to settle in a stalking position, likely one off the leading pair. #3 Eye Of The Fire (10) will have to make a decision from the wide gate; the likely option is to press forward to find a position in the first four, though this risks being caught wide without cover.
🏃♂️Midfield
The bulk of the field will settle here. #4 Mr Exclusive (6), #5 Veloce Carro (5), and #9 Documentary (7) all draw for ideal midfield runs with cover. #10 Commands Success (9) will also look for a similar spot from its barrier.
🐌Backmarkers
#2 Losesomewinmore (4) and #8 Smart Little Miss (3) are habitual slow starters and will settle at the rear of the field, looking to make one sustained run down the long Flemington straight.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 10m for the entire circuit, the main racing strip will be towards the centre of the track. This often means the ground near the inside rail is less trafficked or potentially inferior. Runners and jockeys may gravitate towards the grandstand side, looking for the perceived 'fast lane'. This can negate the advantage of low barriers slightly, as all horses will be aiming for a similar strip of ground in the straight. It is a very fair setup for a straight race.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is a Good 4, which points to a firm and fast racing surface. This will suit horses who can quicken sharply and handle firm ground. The genuine tempo on a Good 4 track will ensure the race is a true test of speed and class. There is no expected track bias due to weather, and it should allow both on-pace horses and closers to perform to their best, assuming the race is run to suit their pattern.
📏Track & Distance Factors
Racing over the 1100m at Flemington utilises the famous "straight six" course. There are no turns, which places a premium on sustained speed and stamina rather than barrier position for cornering. It gives all runners a chance to find their rhythm and unwind, though it can be a long way home for leaders if the pace is too strong. Backmarkers get every opportunity to run on if they are good enough.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Benchmark 84 Handicap, indicating a competitive and well-matched field of seasoned sprinters. The established racing patterns of these horses make the speed map more reliable than in a maiden or lower-class race. The handicap conditions, with weights ranging from 60.5kg down to 52.0kg, give the lighter-weighted runners a theoretical advantage over the classier top-weights, which can be a factor in the final 200m.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The map points to a genuinely run 1100m sprint. #1 South Of India and #6 Call To Glory will ensure an honest gallop from the outset. This tempo should provide an ideal setup for horses that can find a trailing position just off the speed, or for strong closers if the leading pair weaken late. The long Flemington straight on a Good 4 surface means horses will have every chance to make their runs, and the race will likely be won by the horse with the best turn of foot in the final 400m.
✅Most Advantaged
#9 Documentary (7) From a perfect barrier, this horse can land in a beautiful midfield position with cover, stalking the genuine tempo. With top jockey Jamie Kah aboard, it can be produced at the right time to use its finishing burst. The genuine pace will prevent it from being left flat-footed and allow it to run over the top of them late.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 Eye Of The Fire (10) The combination of a wide barrier (10) and a genuine tempo set by inside-drawn leaders puts this horse in a difficult tactical position. To get on-pace, it risks being posted three or four wide with no cover for the entire trip. To take a sit, it may end up further back than its usual pattern dictates. Both scenarios are tough.
💰Betting Considerations
Based on this analysis, the race is likely to favour horses coming from just off the speed or strong finishers.
- Value Proposition: Horses like #7 Subliminal and #9 Documentary map to get ideal runs behind a solid tempo and could represent value if their class is sufficient. They are positioned to strike without spending too much energy early.
- Risk Assessment: The two leaders, #1 South Of India and #6 Call To Glory, could be vulnerable to being "-run" by a horse with a superior finishing kick, especially if they eyeball each other. The noted backmarker #2 Losesomewinmore will need the pace to be strong and will require a top-class finish to run down the entire field, but the race shape is in its favour.
- Strategy: Look for horses poised in the midfield or on-pace (with cover) positions as having the highest probability of being in the finish. Backmarkers with a history of powerful finishes at this track are also strong considerations.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
South Of India
Losesomewinmore
Eye Of The Fire
Mr Exclusive
Veloce Carro
Call To Glory
Subliminal
Smart Little Miss
Documentary
Commands Success
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