Victorian Jockeys' Association Trophy (Bm100)

With the rail out 10m for the entire circuit, the track will play somewhat tighter. This can sometimes offer a slight advantage to on-pace runners who can kick on the turn and steal a break. Jockeys will likely look to fan out in the long straight, searching for what they perceive to be the superior ground away from the inside, which can open up runs for those coming from behind. Horses drawn low who get shuffled back risk being caught in inferior ground or blocked for a run.

The track is rated a Good 4, which will ensure a fair racing surface for all competitors. On a dry track, the pace is likely to be true and sustained. It will favour horses who possess a sharp turn of foot, as stamina will be less of a factor than on wet ground. There is no expected track bias, allowing horses to win from any position if good enough.

The 1410m start at Flemington is from a chute, providing a long, straight run before the home turn. This configuration is advantageous for horses drawn in middle to wide gates, as it gives them ample time to cross and find a position without being rushed. The long 450m Flemington straight gives all runners a chance, but particularly suits horses with a strong, sustained finish. A genuinely run race, as predicted, will allow backmarkers every opportunity to run on, whereas a slow tempo would heavily favour those on pace.

As a Benchmark 100 handicap, the race features seasoned, high-quality gallopers with established racing patterns, making the speed map relatively reliable. The compressed weight scale (59.5kg to 53.0kg) means classier horses are not overly penalised, but it gives an advantage to progressive, lower-weighted runners who are on an upward trajectory. The presence of the first-up #4 Run Harry Run adds an element of uncertainty to the map.