Aurie's Star Hcp
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 7 at Flemington
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map points towards a solid and honest tempo. The presence of at least two horses with a preference for leading or being right on the speed ensures there will be pressure up front.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#2 Marble Nine is the most probable leader, using his natural speed to cross from the wide alley. #1 Joyful Fortune will be right there from the inside gate, either holding the rail in front or sitting at the leader's girth.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#6 Danny's St Darci (4) and #8 She Dances (6) map for perfect runs. They can settle in the first four or five, one off the rail, enjoying a trail into the race behind the speed battle. #3 Lady In Pink (2), while fresh, can use the good draw to settle handy, though may lack the sharp speed of the others.
🏃♂️Midfield
#7 Miss Aria (7) should find a position in the middle of the pack. #4 Bandi's Boy (10) will likely settle in the second half of the field. The unknown runner, #10 King Of Roseau (12), is anticipated to settle midfield or worse from the wide barrier.
🐌Backmarkers
#9 Bossy Nic (1) and #11 Splash Back (9) are the designated closers. They will be ridden patiently towards the rear of the field and will be looking to make their runs down the outside in the straight.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 10m for the entire circuit, the running will be concentrated on the central and grandstand-side portion of the track. This position often negates any significant bias towards the inside rail. It effectively widens the track, making barrier draws less critical than at turning tracks. Horses drawn wide with speed (like #2 Marble Nine) have a fair chance to cross without being trapped deep around a bend. It generally promotes fair racing, where the best horse on the day, with the right run, will prevail.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Good 4, which is a perfect surface for racing. This will allow for fast times and will suit horses with a sharp turn of foot. There will be no excuses for any runner regarding the ground. The fair surface means that on-pace horses who get a comfortable mid-race sectional can be difficult to run down, while backmarkers will get their chance to accelerate on firm footing if the pace is strong enough to tire the leaders.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The Flemington 1200m straight course is a unique test. With no turns, the race is a pure drag race that requires both sustained speed and a strong finishing burst. The long, open straight provides ample opportunity for all runners to get clear running, significantly favouring horses that can build momentum and finish powerfully. A genuine tempo, as predicted here, will stretch the field out and ensure that stamina at the end of 1200m becomes a crucial factor, potentially bringing the backmarkers into play.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a high-quality Open Handicap. The handicap conditions (weights from 60.0kg down to 54.0kg) are designed to level the playing field between the more accomplished runners and the emerging talent. In a feature sprint like this, jockeys are typically aggressive in seeking advantageous positions, which supports the prediction of a genuine tempo. The quality of the field ensures a professionally run race where tactical acumen will be key.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be run at a genuine tempo, initiated by #2 Marble Nine and #1 Joyful Fortune. This will create a demanding test down the Flemington straight on a fair Good 4 surface. The key dynamic will be whether the leaders can withstand the pressure and hold on, or if the strong pace sets the race up for those sitting just off the speed or the swoopers from the back. The race will likely develop into a test of stamina over the final 400m.
✅Most Advantaged
#6 Danny's St Darci (4) appears to map perfectly. From a low draw, Daniel Stackhouse can position her just behind the speed battle, likely in a one-out, one-back position. With a light weight (55.5kg) and a genuine tempo to chase, she should get the ideal trail into the race and be poised to strike at the top of the straight with the first run on the backmarkers. #8 She Dances maps for a similarly advantageous run.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#2 Marble Nine (11) faces a difficult task. While he possesses the speed to lead, he must do so from a wide gate and carries a significant weight of 59.5kg. The expected pressure from #1 Joyful Fortune means he is unlikely to get an easy lead and could be vulnerable over the final 200m to a horse with a softer run and lighter weight.
💰Betting Considerations
Based on this analysis, the tactical setup strongly favours the on-pace runners who have drawn well enough to take a sit without spending too much energy.
- Primary Focus: #6 Danny's St Darci and #8 She Dances are the runners who profile to get the most favourable runs in transit. They represent high-percentage plays as they can adapt to the pace and should be in a striking position turning for home.
- Value Opportunities: The backmarkers, #9 Bossy Nic and #11 Splash Back, become strong considerations if you anticipate the early pace being even stronger than predicted. If the leaders cut at each other, these two will be finishing powerfully and could represent excellent value in exotic bets (Quinella, Trifecta).
- Risks: The leaders, particularly #2 Marble Nine and to a lesser extent #1 Joyful Fortune, appear to be in a speed duel that could compromise their winning chances. They may be worth opposing from a win perspective given the likely race shape. #10 King of Roseau is unbettable without market support, given the complete lack of recent form.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Joyful Fortune
Marble Nine
Lady In Pink
Bandi's Boy
Danny's St Darci
Miss Aria
She Dances
Bossy Nic
King Of Roseau
Splash Back
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