2025 Melbourne Cup Carnival On Sale (Bm84)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 8 at Flemington
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The pace map is dominated by key speed runners drawn in wide barriers. This scenario almost guarantees a solid tempo as they work to find positions before the turn. - **#10 Black Storm:** The designated leader in the race, but has drawn the extreme outside barrier (16). To cross and lead, as is his pattern, jockey Ethan Brown will have no choice but to push forward with urgency, injecting significant early speed. - **#6 Think 'n' Fly:** Another natural on-pacer resuming from a spell. He is also drawn wide (14) and will likely press forward to avoid being caught deep, adding to the pressure on the front end. - **#14 He'll Rip:** Showed tactical speed from a wide gate last start and will be another runner from a middle-to-wide draw (9) looking to push forward into a handy position, ensuring the pace remains honest through the middle stages.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 10m, the circumference of the track is reduced slightly, and the turn becomes a little tighter. This can sometimes offer a slight advantage to on-pace runners who have saved ground. However, the surface should be pristine and away from any inside wear, providing a fair racing surface for all. The key will still be the pace of the race; a strong tempo will negate any major on-pace bias, allowing closers to have their chance down the middle of the track.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
A Good 4 track with fine weather forecast ensures perfect racing conditions. The firm surface will allow for fast times and will not favour any particular running style. The race will be a true test of ability and tactics. The genuine tempo on a dry track means there will be no excuses, and horses will need to run out a strong 1620m to be in the finish.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1620m start at Flemington provides a long 600m run to the only turn, which does allow horses drawn wide a chance to cross. However, the energy expended by #10 Black Storm and #6 Think 'n' Fly to achieve this will be significant. The long Flemington straight (over 450m) is famous for giving backmarkers their opportunity, and with a strong pace predicted, it will be set up perfectly for horses with a strong finishing burst to make up ground.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a competitive BM84 Handicap, the field is comprised of seasoned gallopers with established racing patterns, adding reliability to the speed map. The weight spread is crucial; horses down in the weights like #14 He'll Rip (52.5kg) and #16 Farhh Flung (54.0kg) receive a significant advantage over the top weights at the end of a genuinely run race, where every kilogram counts.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is defined by the strong, pressured tempo expected from wide-drawn leaders. This will ensure the race is not a tactical, sit-sprint affair. It will string the field out and set it up for horses who can obtain an economical run in transit and produce a sustained run down the long Flemington straight. Horses drawn inside with the ability to settle just off the speed or in midfield are in the prime position to strike. The race will likely be won by a horse finishing strongly from the first half of the field or a genuine backmarker if the leaders compound late.
✅Most Advantaged
#16 Farhh Flung (5) appears to get a dream setup. He draws perfectly in barrier 5 to land in a beautiful midfield position with cover under Jamie Kah. He carries a light weight (54.0kg) and the predicted strong tempo is exactly what he needs to unleash his finishing burst in the straight. His recent form is solid, and the map gives him every possible chance.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#10 Black Storm (16) faces an enormous task. As a natural leader, he must burn considerable energy to cross the entire field from the widest barrier. This early effort is highly likely to leave him vulnerable to swoopers in the final 200m. Similarly, #6 Think 'n' Fly (14) and #7 Whisky On The Hill (15) are also severely compromised by their wide barriers.
💰Betting Considerations
Strategic focus should be on runners who map to get a soft run and have a strong finish.
- High Confidence Profiles: Horses drawn inside gates who can settle midfield are the primary targets. #16 Farhh Flung (5), #11 One Long Day (2), and #5 Outta Compton (1) all map for perfect, energy-saving runs.
- Risk: The leaders drawn wide (#10 Black Storm, #6 Think 'n' Fly) are significant risks and likely underlays given the work they need to do.
- Value Opportunities: Look for strong closers who will appreciate the genuine tempo. #4 Angry Skies (12) with Mark Zahra aboard and #9 Ocean Beyond (8) are both capable of running on into the placings at good odds if the leaders overdo it. The lightweight #14 He'll Rip (9) is another who could benefit from the race shape if he can find cover.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
El Soleado
Taramansour
Hard To Cross
Angry Skies
Outta Compton
Think 'n' Fly
Whisky On The Hill
Pudding
Ocean Beyond
Black Storm
One Long Day
Unseen Ruler
He'll Rip
Too Darn Discreet
Farhh Flung
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