Inside Headquarters (Bm78)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 9 at Flemington
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
This race profiles to have significant early pressure from multiple sources. A strong tempo is anticipated due to the number of on-pace runners, particularly those drawn wide who will need to commit to going forward to find a position.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#8 Honor Galore is the most likely to lead from barrier 1. However, it will face significant and sustained pressure from #4 Terrestar and #15 Ten Deep, who must push on from their wide draws. One of this trio will likely lead, with the other two sitting on its flank.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#5 Capricorn Star is drawn perfectly in barrier 4 to take the box seat trail behind the speed. #7 Vienna Vixen (2) and #17 Eagle Express (3) can use their low draws to settle in the first four or five, enjoying an economical run. #13 Friday At Five (8) will also press forward to be handy.
🏃♂️Midfield
#3 Electric Belle (11) will likely settle midfield but risks being caught three-wide. #9 Illyivy (5) and #14 Impending Shadow (6) draw for ideal midfield runs with cover.
🐌Backmarkers
#1 Stylish (13) and #11 Jazz Affair (14) are the two designated backmarkers. From their wide gates, they will be eased back to the rear of the field and will be looking to make their runs down the long Flemington straight.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 10m, the track will play somewhat tighter, particularly around the home turn. This can occasionally favour on-pace runners who can save ground and kick for home. However, the long straight remains the great leveller. Historically, when the rail is out this far at Flemington, there can be a tendency for jockeys to look for fresh ground towards the middle-to-outside of the track in the straight. This could potentially disadvantage those who are locked away on the inside if that section of the track is inferior.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
A Good 4 surface with fine weather ensures a fair and unbiased racing surface. The track will be in perfect condition, offering no excuses. The primary influence on the race's outcome will be the pace and tactics, not the track condition. All runners should be able to perform to their best on this surface, and it will allow for horses to make ground from the back if they have the finishing speed.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1410m start at Flemington provides a long, straight run down the side of the course before the sweeping home turn. This gives horses drawn wide some opportunity to cross and find a position, but it is a long, sustained effort to do so. The key feature is the expansive home straight, which will give every horse its chance. A strong tempo, as predicted, will sort the field out, and horses finishing strongly from midfield or further back will be suited if the leaders have overdone it.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 78 Handicap for mares, this is a highly competitive event. The compressed weight scale means many runners are closely matched. The significant pace in the race will bring the handicap into play, potentially advantaging mares down in the weights like #15 Ten Deep (52.0kg) and #11 Jazz Affair (53.5kg) if they can withstand the early pressure and finish off.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The map is defined by a cluster of on-pace runners drawn wide, which will force a genuine to strong tempo. #8 Honor Galore will attempt to hold the lead from the inside but will be under siege. This high-pressure scenario sets the race up beautifully for horses drawn to get an economical run just off the pace, conserving energy before launching in the long straight. The race will likely develop into a test of stamina over the final 400m, favouring those who have had a soft run and possess a strong finish.
✅Most Advantaged
#5 Capricorn Star (4) This mare is drawn perfectly to receive the dream run of the race. From barrier 4, Jamie Mott can land in the box seat or one-out-one-back, stalking a strong speed without spending a penny. Given her consistent on-pace pattern, she gets the ideal tactical setup to produce her best at the finish. #7 Vienna Vixen (2) is in a very similar, advantageous position.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#4 Terrestar (18) A horse that needs to be on-pace is dealt a horror blow with the outside barrier. Ben Melham will have to use a significant amount of energy to cross the field, and the most likely scenario is being trapped three or four wide without cover for the entire race. This is an almost impossible task at Flemington. #15 Ten Deep (15) faces a similar difficult assignment.
💰Betting Considerations
The speed map strongly suggests opposing the on-pace runners drawn wide, specifically #4 Terrestar and #15 Ten Deep, as they are highly likely to have punishing runs. The race sets up perfectly for horses drawn inside gates 2-7 that can take a sit. #5 Capricorn Star and #7 Vienna Vixen are the two that stand out as having the most favourable map. For value, look to strong finishers like #1 Stylish and #9 Illyivy, who will get the fast pace they need to make a late charge down the middle of the track.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Stylish
Electric Belle
Terrestar
Capricorn Star
Vienna Vixen
Honor Galore
Illyivy
Jazz Affair
Friday At Five
Impending Shadow
Ten Deep
Eagle Express
Southern Fire
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