Ridleys SA (Bm62)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 4 at Murray Bridge GH
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The race lacks a designated, high-pressure leader, but features a solid group of on-pace runners who should ensure a genuine, but not frantic, tempo. The 2000m distance on soft ground will encourage jockeys to find a rhythm rather than burn excessive energy early.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#8 Burning Bright is best drawn to lead and will likely be challenged for the front by #11 Shearman Dyer. It's probable one takes the lead and the other sits outside.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#5 Bellakai from barrier 5 and #10 Santelmo Fuego from barrier 2 are drawn to take perfect, economical runs tracking the leading pair. #3 Chance Taken will likely be forced to work forward from the wide gate and settle in this group, albeit potentially three-wide without cover if it can't cross.
🏃♂️Midfield
This will be the largest group. #1 Lavish Thinker and #4 Harley'n'rose will likely look to slide across from their gates and find cover in this position. #9 Peta's Heart maps to be here, while #12 Sea Treasures can use its low draw to hold a spot in the running line, saving ground.
🐌Backmarkers
#6 Rabtat has a clear pattern of getting back and will almost certainly settle near the rear. #7 Red Roof is also likely to be ridden quietly from its wide alley to find cover. #2 Smiling Assassin typically settles in the back half of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +3m in the chute and True for the remainder, the track should play fairly. This setup offers no significant advantage or disadvantage to any particular running style. The inside will be the shortest way home, favouring horses drawn low that can hold their position, such as #8 Burning Bright and #10 Santelmo Fuego.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The official Soft 6 rating will make this a genuine staying test over 2000m. Stamina will be crucial, and horses that have to do extra work early will be vulnerable late. Horses with proven form on rain-affected ground will have a distinct advantage. The pace may be slightly more controlled as jockeys aim to conserve energy for a testing final straight. It will be difficult for horses to make up significant ground from the back unless the leaders overdo it.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 2000m start at Murray Bridge provides a long, straight run of approximately 600m before the first turn. This significantly mitigates the disadvantage of wide barriers for horses with tactical speed, like #3 Chance Taken, as it gives them ample time to move across and find a position. The long, sweeping home straight of around 400m gives all runners their chance, allowing backmarkers to wind up, provided the pace has been sufficient to tire the leaders.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 62 handicap, the field consists of runners with varying consistency. The 2000m distance will sort out the genuine stayers from those who are suspect at the trip, especially on soft going. Horses who are fit and dropping back from slightly tougher races, or those who have shown a liking for these specific conditions, are at an advantage. The weight spread is notable, and runners down in the weights with proven stamina will be well-placed.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be won or lost based on positioning and stamina on the soft track. The moderate pace should favour those on-speed or just behind the pace, as they will be able to dictate terms and kick for home before the backmarkers can build momentum. The key will be which on-pace runner gets the most economical run and has the best turn of foot at the end of a testing 2000m. Backmarkers will need the tempo to be stronger than anticipated to be a winning chance.
✅Most Advantaged
#8 Burning Bright draws perfectly in barrier 1 to either lead or take the box seat trail. The horse has a consistent on-pace pattern, gets in with a light weight (54.5kg), and will save crucial ground throughout. This provides an ideal tactical setup to be strong at the finish.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 Chance Taken faces a significant task from the outside barrier (12). It will be forced to either burn energy to cross and find a forward position or risk being caught wide for the entire trip. Both scenarios will tax its stamina on a Soft 6 track over 2000m. Similarly, #1 Lavish Thinker is burdened with the top weight of 62.0kg and a wide draw (10), a challenging combination under these conditions.
💰Betting Considerations
Horses that map to get an easy run on or near the speed from an inside gate represent the most logical betting propositions. #8 Burning Bright and #10 Santelmo Fuego fit this profile perfectly, offering low-risk map positions. There is a significant risk associated with backmarkers like #6 Rabtat and #7 Red Roof, who will require both a strong pace and clear running in the straight to feature. Value may be found in a horse like #5 Bellakai, who maps well and has shown the ability to handle various race tempos. The market might underestimate horses with proven wet-track credentials if their recent form has been on firmer surfaces.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Lavish Thinker
Smiling Assassin
Chance Taken
Harley'n'rose
Bellakai
Rabtat
Red Roof
Burning Bright
Peta's Heart
Santelmo Fuego
Shearman Dyer
Sea Treasures
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