Murdoch Insurance Brokers Hcp (66)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 9 at Murray Bridge GH
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map is loaded with horses who possess tactical speed or prefer to race on the pace, several of whom are drawn wide and will be forced to press forward to find a position. This combination points towards significant pressure for the lead and a legitimately run race from the outset.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#11 Affaire Vue is the most likely to find the rail and lead. She will face pressure from #3 Proven Correct and the wide-drawn #5 Budjik Boy who will be working hard to cross over.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#8 Amber Nook is drawn perfectly in barrier 2 to take the box-seat trail behind the leaders. #6 Wild Willy (14) and #7 Tower Of Tuscany (12) have the speed to be prominent but are drawn awkwardly and risk being caught three-wide without cover. #10 Kushan Khanivale (15) may also press forward to find a handy spot.
🏃♂️Midfield
This group will be looking for cover. #1 The Mansman (11) and #2 Exabanoise (10) will likely settle mid-pack, possibly three-wide with cover. #9 High Garden faces a tough task from barrier 18 and will be forced to settle in the running line, likely worse than midfield.
🐌Backmarkers
#15 Intacto (8) produced a big finish from the rear last start and is a natural backmarker. #14 Whiskey 'n' Women (9) and #17 Harbouring (1) also typically settle in the second half of the field and will be looking to run on late.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
The rail is at +3m in the chute and True for the remainder. At Murray Bridge, this is a standard position and typically plays fairly. However, on a Soft 6 track, the inside section of the home straight could begin to chop up as the meeting progresses. This may lead jockeys to steer towards the centre of the track in search of better ground, potentially giving an advantage to horses swooping down the outside.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Soft 6. This will be a significant factor. A genuinely run 1400m on soft ground becomes a true test of stamina. Horses who go too hard up front will be highly vulnerable in the final 200m. The conditions will favour horses who have proven form on rain-affected going and possess a strong finishing burst. Horses who are one-paced or unproven on wet ground will struggle to finish the race off.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1400m start at Murray Bridge provides a fair run to the first turn, but it's not long enough to prevent horses drawn very wide from having to do significant work to find a position. The track's key feature is its long, spacious home straight. This characteristic, combined with the predicted strong pace, means that backmarkers will have every opportunity to make up ground if they are good enough. The race will not be over at the home turn.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Benchmark 66 handicap, a competitive grade where many runners are similarly rated. This often places a premium on jockey tactics and the run each horse gets in transit. The strong pace scenario suggests the race will be run on its merits, rewarding the fittest horse with the best finishing ability rather than being a tactical affair won by a horse who gets a cheap lead.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set up for a genuine to strong tempo, with #11 Affaire Vue leading from an inside gate but facing sustained pressure from #3 Proven Correct and the wide-drawn #5 Budjik Boy. This high-pressure scenario on a Soft 6 track will make it very difficult for the leaders to sustain their effort to the line. The race shape strongly favours horses that can get an economical run in midfield or further back and have the stamina and wet-track ability to finish powerfully down the long Murray Bridge straight.
✅Most Advantaged
#15 Intacto (8) His last-start win at Gawler saw him come from last with a powerful finish on a heavy track. The predicted strong pace here is the perfect setup for his closing style. He is a proven wet-tracker who will be finishing hard when others are tiring. #1 The Mansman (11) is another who benefits. He gets back but has a strong finish, is a previous winner at this track and distance, and handles soft going. He will be suited by the tempo.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#5 Budjik Boy (19) This horse faces a near-impossible task from barrier 19. His racing pattern is to be on-pace, meaning he must either use a huge amount of energy to cross the field or be trapped 4-5 wide with no cover for the entire race. Both scenarios are detrimental to his chances. Other on-pace runners drawn wide, such as #6 Wild Willy (14) and #10 Kushan Khanivale (15), are also in difficult tactical positions.
💰Betting Considerations
The speed map strongly suggests opposing any on-pace runner that has drawn a wide barrier, particularly #5 Budjik Boy. The significant early pressure combined with the soft track makes them highly vulnerable. Conversely, there is value to be found in horses who can settle with cover and have a proven finishing burst on rain-affected ground. #15 Intacto and #1 The Mansman fit this profile perfectly and should be suited by how the race unfolds. #8 Amber Nook is a potential beneficiary of a perfect inside run (box seat) if the leaders hold on better than expected, representing a tactical "each-way" chance. The race setup is ideal for backing strong finishers.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
The Mansman
Exabanoise
Proven Correct
Budjik Boy
Wild Willy
Tower Of Tuscany
Amber Nook
High Garden
Kushan Khanivale
Affaire Vue
Whiskey 'n' Women
Intacto
Harbouring
Liselle's Luck
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