Captivant @ Kia Ora (Bm72)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 1 at Rosehill
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map lacks a designated, high-pressure leader, suggesting a controlled tempo is likely, especially on a Heavy 9 track where jockeys will want to conserve energy. The main speed influences will dictate a genuine, but not frantic, pace.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#7 Spaceballs is the most probable leader given the jockey and lack of exposed form. #9 Aroha Stone will be right there from the low draw and could take it up if Spaceballs isn't intent.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#4 Narbold projects to land in a perfect spot, trailing the leaders from barrier 3. #5 Amusing from the coveted barrier 1 with James McDonald aboard will be urged to hold its position, likely settling in the box seat, one or two pairs back on the fence. #1 Bella Khadijah is an unknown but from barrier 5 has the opportunity to land in this forward group.
🏃♂️Midfield
#2 Barbray and #3 Hopper have patterns of settling mid-race. From their respective barriers (9 and 6), they will likely be forced to take a sit, probably ending up three-wide with cover or further back than ideal.
🐌Backmarkers
This race lacks a natural backmarker. All runners typically settle in the first two-thirds of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +4m on a Heavy 9 surface, the inside section of the track is likely to be significantly worn and inferior ground by this stage of the day. Jockeys will be looking to get their mounts off the fence from the top of the straight to find better going in the middle of the track. This could be a disadvantage for a horse like #5 Amusing, who maps to be on the rail and may need luck to get into clear, better ground. Horses that can travel slightly wider with cover and peel out will be advantaged.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 rating is the single most important factor. This will make the 1500m feel more like 1700m and will severely test the stamina of all runners. Only horses with proven ability on genuinely bottomless tracks can be considered with confidence. The pace will be tempered by the conditions, but any horse forced to do extra work will pay a heavy price late. Proven heavy-track performers like #9 Aroha Stone (won/placed on H8) and #2 Barbray (won on H9) have a significant advantage over a horse like #3 Hopper, who has a steward's note for failing to handle a Heavy 9.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1500m start at Rosehill provides a long run down the back straight to the first turn, allowing runners to find their positions without excessive early pressure. This suits horses drawn slightly wide if they have tactical speed. However, on a Heavy 9 track, the long home straight becomes a significant test of stamina. Horses that have worked hard early or are not genuine wet-trackers will struggle to finish off. The emphasis will be on finding a rhythm and saving ground where possible.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 72 for 3 and 4-year-olds, this is a competitive race for progressive types. The handicap conditions create a relatively level playing field. The presence of first-starters (#1 Bella Khadijah, #7 Spaceballs) adds a layer of unpredictability to the speed map and the overall quality of the race, making the established form of the other runners more reliable but not guaranteed.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be a tactical affair run at a moderate tempo, culminating in a gruelling slog up the Rosehill straight on a Heavy 9. The winner will need to possess three key attributes: proven heavy track ability, a favourable position in the run (ideally on-pace with cover), and the stamina to sustain a run on the testing ground. The predicted map suggests an advantage for those drawn inside who can settle in the first few pairs without spending too much energy.
✅Most Advantaged
#9 Aroha Stone (9) This horse's profile aligns perfectly with the race conditions. It draws to get a perfect, energy-saving run on-pace from barrier 2. It is a proven heavy tracker with wins and placings on soft and heavy ground. From the map, it can control the race or take a perfect trail, giving it the ideal tactical setup to handle the demanding conditions.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 Hopper (3) The steward's report stating it "Failed to handle going" on a Heavy 9 track is a major red flag. Combined with a midfield settling pattern from a slightly awkward gate, it faces the enormous task of making up ground on a surface it has previously despised. #2 Barbray is also disadvantaged by the wide barrier (9), which will likely force it to cover extra ground, a death knell on a Heavy 9.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis points strongly towards horses that have drawn well and have proven form on heavy tracks.
- High Confidence: #9 Aroha Stone appears to have the ideal map and surface credentials. It represents a strong tactical play.
- Value/Risk: #4 Narbold maps well and could be a factor if it handles the Heavy 9. #5 Amusing gets the perfect run with the perfect jockey but is a risk if the inside rail is a no-go zone.
- Lay/Avoid: #3 Hopper is a significant risk due to its previously documented failure on a Heavy 9 track. The risk far outweighs the potential reward.
- Wildcards: The market will be the best guide for the debutants. #7 Spaceballs with Tim Clark aboard could give a strong sight if it has ability and relishes the wet ground.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Bella Khadijah
Barbray
Hopper
Narbold
Amusing
Spaceballs
Aroha Stone
Ready for an Edge?
Join our free newsletter for expert analysis and data-backed selections delivered every Wednesday and Saturday.