Congratulations Chris Waller (Bm78)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 10 at Rosehill
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of a dedicated leader in #13 First Person from the inside gate, combined with the on-pace pattern of #11 Ravenclaw from a mid-draw, should ensure a true and honest tempo. #13 First Person has consistently led in recent starts and will be intent on using the rails draw. #11 Ravenclaw has the speed to sit outside the lead, preventing an easy time up front. This pressure, compounded by the testing Heavy 9 track, will make it a genuinely run 1100m.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#13 First Person is the clear-cut leader from the rails draw. Expect it to hold the fence and dictate terms. #11 Ravenclaw is the other potential pace influence and is expected to settle prominently, either challenging for the lead or sitting second on its outside.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#1 Magnatear is perfectly drawn in barrier 5 to land in the box seat or one-out, one-back, stalking the speed.
🏃♂️Midfield
#8 Catch The Glory projects to settle in its usual mid-pack position from barrier 7. #10 Herbert Park is a query with no recent runs but from barrier 3, a midfield position on the fence seems a logical starting point.
🐌Backmarkers
#4 Balkans (barrier 12) and #5 Hanau (barrier 10) are both natural get-back runners. Their wide barriers reinforce this pattern, and they will be spotting the leaders a significant start turning for home.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +4m, the track might play slightly differently than when in the True position. Early in the meeting, this can provide a fresh strip of ground. However, on a Heavy 9 surface and late in the day, the ground near the rail could be significantly chopped up. This may force jockeys to search for better going wider out in the straight, potentially nullifying the advantage of an inside draw and assisting swoopers who can find the superior lanes.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 rating is the single most critical factor. This will be a slog.
- The overall pace will be taxing, and the race will be won by the horse with superior wet track credentials and stamina.
- A distinct track bias may emerge. If the inside is a 'no-go' zone by this race, backmarkers who can sweep wide to find better ground could be advantaged, provided the pace has been strong enough for them to run on.
- Horses without proven form on Heavy ground are at a severe disadvantage. Conversely, proven "mudders" like #13 First Person (wins on H8 and H10) are significantly advantaged.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1100m start at Rosehill provides a run of approximately 400m to the home turn. This is generally ample time for horses to find their positions. However, the Rosehill straight is only 400m long, which can favour on-pace runners if the tempo is moderate. On a Heavy 9 track, this short straight can feel exceptionally long, and it becomes a severe test of stamina. Horses that have done too much work early will be vulnerable late, potentially bringing strong finishers into the race if they are close enough to strike.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 78 Handicap, the race features seasoned, exposed horses. The weight scale is crucial. The top weight, #1 Magnatear (60.0kg), faces a monumental task on a Heavy 9 track, conceding significant weight to key rivals. In contrast, #13 First Person (55.0kg) receives a 5kg weight pull, a massive advantage in these draining conditions.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set up for a genuinely run contest on extremely testing ground. The map suggests a clear tactical advantage for the on-pace division, particularly the leader. The combination of a strong tempo and the Heavy 9 surface will ensure a war of attrition, where fitness, weight, and wet-track ability will be paramount. The key will be whether the leader, #13 First Person, can get a cheap enough sectional mid-race to fend off the closers, or if the taxing ground and genuine tempo will set it up for a horse with a strong finish.
✅Most Advantaged
#13 First Person (1) The map is perfect. It is a natural leader drawn barrier 1, carries a light weight of 55.0kg, and has outstanding form on Heavy tracks. It gets every conceivable tactical advantage and will take a world of running down if it can rate the pace correctly on the front end.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#4 Balkans (12) Faces a nightmare scenario. As a backmarker drawn the widest gate on a Heavy 9 track, it will be forced to cover extra ground and make a long, sustained run from the rear. This is an extremely low-percentage play under these conditions. The top weight #1 Magnatear (60.0kg) is also severely disadvantaged by the combination of weight and the bottomless track.
💰Betting Considerations
- The analysis points overwhelmingly towards horses with proven heavy track form and a tactical advantage. #13 First Person profiles as the horse to beat due to the confluence of a favourable speed map, light weight, and specialist wet-track ability.
- Backmarkers, especially those drawn wide like #4 Balkans and #5 Hanau, represent extreme risk and would need the race to completely fall apart to win. They are likely betting propositions to oppose.
- The weight carried by #1 Magnatear makes it very hard to entertain as a winning chance under these conditions.
- #11 Ravenclaw is a key tactical player. Its performance will depend heavily on its ability to handle the Heavy 9. If it can, its on-pace position gives it a chance, but it may be vulnerable to a stronger finisher late.
- Monitor any betting moves for the unknown quantity, #10 Herbert Park, as this may signal stable confidence despite the lack of recent public trials. Without market support, it is best left alone.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Magnatear
Balkans
Hanau
Catch The Glory
Herbert Park
Ravenclaw
First Person
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