Congratulations James McDonald (Bm78)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 4 at Rosehill
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map lacks a designated, high-pressure leader, which points towards a moderate tempo. However, there are several factors that will ensure it isn't a crawl. The primary speed influences are likely to come from horses drawn to take advantage of their gates, and the tactical decisions from riders on horses drawn wider.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
The lead is contestable. #13 Sunshine Law is the most likely to attempt to lead from the inside. However, #4 African Daisy will almost certainly press forward from the wide gate and could sit outside the leader or even take it up.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#9 Super Norwest and #11 Sister Daae are drawn perfectly to settle in the first four, enjoying economical runs just behind the leaders.
🏃♂️Midfield
#2 Pippie Beach draws the coveted barrier 1 and profiles as a horse that will settle midfield on the fence, saving all possible ground. #1 Lady Extreme will likely have to slot into a midfield position from its awkward draw (8), possibly caught three-wide with or without cover.
🐌Backmarkers
Given the significant lack of recent form for most of the field, it is difficult to nominate a natural backmarker. A horse that is slow away or deliberately restrained from a wide gate would settle here by default.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +4m, the track can start to favour horses that are on-pace and can dictate from the front. If the inside ground begins to chop out during the meeting, being on the rail could become a disadvantage in the straight. Jockeys may look to shift off the fence in the home straight to find what they perceive to be superior ground, which could make it difficult for a horse like #2 Pippie Beach if it is hemmed in on the rail.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 track is the single most critical factor in this race. This surface will turn the 1400m into a searching test of stamina and wet-track prowess.
- Pace: A heavy track often blunts early speed and makes it very difficult for leaders to sustain a high tempo and kick away. The race is likely to become a war of attrition in the final 300m.
- Bias: The inside lanes are at risk of becoming inferior ground as the meeting progresses. Horses with the ability to come down the middle-to-wider part of the track in the straight may be advantaged.
- Horse Ability: Only horses who genuinely handle heavy going will be competitive. Any runner unproven on this type of surface is a major risk. #2 Pippie Beach has a significant advantage, being a previous winner on a Heavy 8 surface over this distance.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1400m start at Rosehill provides a long, fair run of approximately 600m to the first turn. This is a significant advantage for horses drawn wide, like #4 African Daisy, as it gives them ample time to cross over and find a position without being forced to burn excessive energy. The long home straight at Rosehill (408m) typically gives every horse its chance, but on a Heavy 9, making up significant ground from the back will be an extremely tough task, placing an emphasis on stamina and track position.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 78 for Fillies and Mares, the race brings together a competitive group. The handicap conditions are crucial on a heavy track, as every kilogram feels like two. The light weight carried by #13 Sunshine Law (52.0kg) is a significant advantage and will enhance its ability to handle the testing conditions if it has any natural aptitude for them.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race will be run at a moderate tempo, but the Heavy 9 track will ensure it is a gruelling contest from the 600m mark. The key to winning will be a combination of proven heavy-track ability, a favourable position in the run, and the stamina to finish off strongly. While leaders can be advantaged by a moderate tempo, the testing ground will make them vulnerable late. The ideal position will be just off the pace with cover, ready to peel out into better ground in the straight.
✅Most Advantaged
#2 Pippie Beach The combination of a perfect inside barrier (1) and being the only runner with a proven victory on a heavy track at this distance makes it tactically superior. It will do no work in the run, saving precious energy for the tough final stages. The only risk is getting locked away on potentially inferior ground, but its established wet-track credentials are a powerful asset that no other runner has demonstrated.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#4 African Daisy Despite having a top jockey, the wide barrier (10) is a major hurdle on a Heavy 9 track. It will be forced to do work early to find a position, and if it gets caught wide without cover, its race will effectively be over before the home turn. The unknown factor of its heavy track ability makes this a very high-risk setup.
💰Betting Considerations
Due to the vast number of runners with no available recent form, this race is fraught with uncertainty. The primary betting angle should be to heavily favour the one commodity that is known: proven heavy track form.
- Core Strategy: #2 Pippie Beach is the standout based on the data. It's drawn to get an economical run and is proven under the race's most testing condition. It profiles as the most reliable runner.
- Value/Exotics: The inside draws for #13 Sunshine Law (2) and #9 Super Norwest (3) give them a tactical advantage. If they handle the ground, their map position makes them strong contenders to run into the placings. Including them in exotics is a logical approach.
- Risk: Any horse without demonstrated form on a Heavy 8 or worse is a significant gamble, regardless of their price. The wide draws for #4 African Daisy (10) and #1 Lady Extreme (8) make them particularly risky propositions. Market support for any of the un-raced runners should be noted, as it may signal stable confidence in their ability to handle the conditions.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Lady Extreme
Pippie Beach
African Daisy
Super Norwest
Sister Daae
Sunshine Law
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