Congratulations Braith Nock (Bm72)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 5 at Rosehill
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map points towards a genuinely run race, if not a strong one. There is a designated leader in #9 Dyami, who won on a Heavy 10 by leading all the way, indicating a clear tactical preference. Pressure is expected to come from multiple sources. #11 Grand Prairie has drawn the pole and has shown speed in trials, and will need to be pushed along to hold its advantageous position. #5 Stardeel has also led to win and from a middle gate, Joshua Parr will likely be positive to avoid being caught wide. The presence of these three on-pace runners should ensure there is no loafing up front.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#9 Dyami is the most probable leader. #5 Stardeel is the main candidate to challenge or sit at its girth.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#11 Grand Prairie is drawn perfectly to land in the box seat, directly behind the leader. #2 Useapin will likely be urged forward by James McDonald from the wide gate to find a position in the running line, one-off with cover, but risks being caught three-wide if he can't slot in.
🏃♂️Midfield
#10 Sakima typically settles in the middle of the pack and should find a similar spot here. #4 Art's Alive is an unknown, but from a good draw, a midfield position is the most logical assumption for a horse without established race pace.
🐌Backmarkers
#8 Totoka is a habitual backmarker, often slow away. Expect this horse to settle at or near the tail of the field from the inside draw, looking to save ground before making a run.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +4m, the track will play slightly tighter. On a Heavy 9, the ground closest to the rail (lanes 1-3) can become chopped up and inferior as the meeting progresses. Jockeys may look to steer their mounts towards the centre of the track in the straight to find less-worn ground. This could potentially disadvantage a horse like #11 Grand Prairie if it is locked away on the fence and the inside is the "slow lane".
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 track condition is the single most important factor in this race. It will severely test the stamina of every runner. The genuine tempo will be even more taxing, and horses who are not proven on genuinely bottomless ground will struggle to finish the race off. Any horse with a question mark on wet ground is a significant risk. Conversely, proven heavy-track specialists are elevated. The conditions will ensure that only the strongest and most well-suited horses will be fighting out the finish.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1200m start at Rosehill provides a fair run of about 400m to the first turn, allowing horses with speed to cross from wider gates. However, on a Heavy 9, burning early energy can be costly. The distance will feel more like 1400m, placing a significant premium on stamina and genuine wet-track ability. The long home straight gives all runners their chance, but making up ground from the back on such a testing surface will be a monumental task unless the leaders have gone too hard.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 72 for 3 and 4-year-olds, this is a competitive race featuring progressive types. The handicap nature means weights are relatively compressed, placing the focus on ability, map position, and track suitability. The mix of on-pace horses and a clear backmarker suggests the race will be run truly, without tactical anomalies often seen in smaller fields or lower-grade races.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be run at a genuine tempo on a very demanding Heavy 9 surface. The key dynamic will be how much pressure is applied to the likely leader, #9 Dyami, by #5 Stardeel. This will determine if the on-pace runners can sustain their effort or if the race sets up for a closer. However, on a Heavy 9, making up significant ground is arduous. The race will likely be won by a horse positioned in the first four or five runners turning for home, provided it has superior stamina and handling of the conditions. The inside lanes may deteriorate, potentially favouring those who can find a path in the middle of the track in the straight.
✅Most Advantaged
#11 Grand Prairie (11) is drawn to get a perfect, ground-saving run in the box seat. This is an enormous advantage on a heavy track, as it conserves vital energy. The horse has won a trial on a Heavy 8, indicating a liking for the conditions. If Tom Sherry can get him off the fence at the right time, he is mapped to get every possible chance.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#2 Useapin (2) faces a significant tactical challenge. The combination of top weight (58.5kg), a wide barrier (11), and a Heavy 9 track is a trifecta of negatives. James McDonald will be forced to either burn energy early to find a forward spot (risking being caught wide) or restrain to the rear, leaving an almost impossible task of making up ground on this surface.
💰Betting Considerations
- Primary Focus: Proven heavy track form is non-negotiable. #9 Dyami (won on H10), #11 Grand Prairie (trial win on H8), and #5 Stardeel (trial win on H9) have all demonstrated capability on wet ground.
- Value Proposition: #11 Grand Prairie offers the best profile from a speed map perspective. The inside draw allows for an energy-saving run, which could be the decisive factor in the final 200m.
- Risks: #2 Useapin is a major risk due to the map and conditions, despite strong recent form and a top jockey. #8 Totoka will be reliant on a fast pace causing a complete collapse of the leaders, a low-probability scenario for a win on a Heavy 9 where momentum is key.
- Exotic Bets: Boxing the on-pace runners with proven wet track form (#9, #5, #11) in quinellas and trifectas appears to be a logical strategy based on the predicted race shape.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Useapin
Art's Alive
Stardeel
Totoka
Dyami
Sakima
Grand Prairie
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