National Jockeys Trust Hcp

With the rail at +4m, the inside section of the track will be on fresh ground early in the meeting. This could provide an initial advantage to on-pace runners who draw low. However, on a Heavy 9, this inside ground is prone to chopping up as the day progresses. Jockeys may look to shift to the middle or wider parts of the track in the straight to find superior going, which could potentially disadvantage any horse that is locked away on the fence and unable to get out.

The Heavy 9 track is the single most significant factor. The race will be a true slog, placing an absolute premium on stamina and proven wet-track ability. The moderate pace will be further tempered by the conditions, and the race will be won by the horse who handles the ground best and has the most energy in reserve for the final 300m. Any horse with a query in heavy conditions is at a severe disadvantage. It will feel more like a 1700m race, favouring strong, grinding types over those with a brilliant turn of foot.

The 1500m start at Rosehill provides a fair run of approximately 250m to the first turn, which is ample time in this small field for runners to find their positions, especially those drawn inside. The long, 408m home straight typically gives all runners a chance, but on a Heavy 9 surface, it becomes a gruelling test of stamina. Horses that can travel comfortably on the moderate pace and quicken off it will be advantaged, while those making long, sustained runs from the back will find it incredibly difficult to make up the required ground.

As an Open Handicap, the field consists of established, professional gallopers whose racing patterns are generally reliable, adding confidence to the speed map. The handicap weights will be felt more acutely on the demanding Heavy 9 surface. Topweights #1 Welwal (59.5kg) and #2 Estadio Mestalla (59.0kg) will need to be at their best to carry the weight effectively through the testing ground.