NSW Jockeys Association (Bm94)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 9 at Rosehill
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
In a small field, the pace is unlikely to be frantic, especially on a Heavy 9 track where jockeys will want to conserve energy. The Novelist is the natural leader from the inside gate but isn't a tearaway. Bunker Hut has tactical speed but is more of a stalker than a presser. The main variable is Astero from the wide gate; if he pushes forward to find a position, the pace could lift to genuine, but it's more likely his rider will opt to find cover rather than engaging in a speed battle on this testing ground. - **#2 The Novelist:** Is the most likely leader from barrier 1 and will dictate the terms. - **#9 Bunker Hut:** Will use the good draw (3) to sit in a controlling position, likely stalking the leader, ensuring the pace remains honest but not excessive. - **#5 Astero:** The wildcard. A decision to press forward from barrier 10 to avoid being caught wide could inject more tempo, but this would be a high-risk move on heavy ground.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +4m, the track often plays to favour horses that can find a path in the middle of the course in the straight. After a day's racing on a Heavy 9, the ground closest to the rail can become chopped up and inferior. Jockeys on backmarkers will be looking to sweep wide into the better going, while on-pace runners may have to navigate away from the inside, potentially opening up lanes but also forcing them to cover extra ground.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 track is the single most important factor. It neutralises pure turn-of-foot and places a premium on stamina and genuine wet-track ability.
- The overall pace will be significantly slower, making the final 600m a true slog.
- #2 The Novelist has a specific steward's note for "Failed to handle going" on a Soft 7, which is a major red flag on a Heavy 9.
- Conversely, #3 War Eternal is a proven performer in these conditions, with wins on Heavy 8 and Heavy 9 tracks. #12 Yoshinobu won a recent trial on a Heavy 8, indicating a strong aptitude for the going.
- Fitness will be paramount; any horse that is not 100% ready will be found out in the final stages.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1300m start at Rosehill provides a fair run from a side chute to the first bend near the 900m mark. This gives horses a chance to find their position before the course proper. However, the key feature is the long, gruelling 408m home straight. On a Heavy 9 surface, this straight becomes a severe test of stamina. Horses that do too much work early will be extremely vulnerable late. The race will be won by the strongest horse over the final 200m, not necessarily the fastest.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 94 handicap, this race features seasoned, high-quality gallopers. However, the small five-horse field dramatically changes the dynamic. It can become a highly tactical affair, where a clever ride can overcome a perceived lack of ability. Jockeys will be acutely aware of each other's moves, and the race could develop into a sprint home from the 600m mark, testing acceleration in the mud.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be a tactical, moderately run affair dictated by #2 The Novelist. #9 Bunker Hut is poised to enjoy the most economical run. However, the result will hinge less on the map and more on which horse can handle the demanding Heavy 9 track over the long Rosehill straight. The likely scenario is The Novelist leading, being stalked by Bunker Hut, with the other three poised to strike if the leaders falter in the testing conditions. The race will likely be won by a horse proven in the wet that has conserved energy for a final, sustained effort.
✅Most Advantaged
#9 Bunker Hut (3) This horse maps to get the perfect tactical run. From barrier 3, Regan Bayliss can position him just off the leader's flank, conserving vital energy on the heavy surface. He avoids leading and being a "sitting duck" but is close enough to strike when the leader feels the pinch. His consistent on-pace pattern is ideal for these conditions.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#2 The Novelist (1) While the barrier is perfect for his pattern, the combination of leading on a draining Heavy 9 track and a previous failure on soft ground makes him incredibly vulnerable. The pressure of leading on this surface could see him empty out quickly in the straight. #5 Astero (10) is also in a difficult position from the wide gate, facing the tough choice of working hard early or getting caught wide without cover.
💰Betting Considerations
- The primary focus should be on proven heavy track performers. #3 War Eternal fits this profile perfectly and could represent value if the on-pace runners overdo it.
- #9 Bunker Hut is the horse who gets the most favours from the map and warrants strong consideration due to the ideal tactical position he is likely to secure.
- Extreme caution is advised for #2 The Novelist due to the combination of the Heavy 9 track and his previous failure in wet conditions. He is a high-risk proposition.
- #12 Yoshinobu is a major contender. His last-start win showed a new dimension, and his recent trial win on heavy ground confirms he handles these conditions. He will be charging late when others are tiring.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
The Novelist
War Eternal
Astero
Bunker Hut
Yoshinobu
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