Shead & Nicholson / Daikin / Seeley International Country Boosted Mdn Plate
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 1 at Forbes
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of a natural leader in **#6 Speed Of Thought** is the primary reason for predicting a genuine tempo. This filly has led her last two starts, including from a wide barrier, and will be sent forward to take up her customary role. The main pressure will come from **#7 Triptolemus**, who sat on-pace from a very wide gate last start and will need to push forward from barrier 8 to avoid being caught wide. With **#1 Caravanserai** and **#3 Miss Adamas** drawn to kick up and hold handy positions, there will be no opportunity for the leaders to get away with cheap sectionals. The Heavy 8 track will make this genuine tempo feel even more taxing.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#6 Speed Of Thought is the most likely outright leader. #7 Triptolemus is the main contender to sit outside the lead, though risks being caught three-wide if he can't cross.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This will be a key group. #1 Caravanserai is drawn perfectly to take the coveted box seat run behind the leader. #3 Miss Adamas also has a low draw and will settle in the first four, likely one off the fence with cover.
🏃♂️Midfield
#2 Spirit Of Saintly is expected to settle in the second half of the small field, likely one or two pairs back from the on-pace group. #8 Pure Melody has an uncertain racing pattern but is likely to land in a similar midfield position, potentially tracking Spirit Of Saintly.
🐌Backmarkers
In this small field, there are no designated backmarkers. The "last" horse will likely only be 4-5 lengths off the lead.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position on a Heavy 8 surface, the inside section can often be the most worn and chopped-up ground. While an inside draw is typically an advantage for saving ground, jockeys may look to shift 1-2 horses off the fence upon straightening to find what they perceive to be superior going. This could slightly negate the barrier advantage for a horse like #1 Caravanserai if he is locked away on the fence, but the energy saved to the home turn remains a significant plus.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 8 track rating is the most significant factor in this race. It will make the 1100m feel more like a 1200m or 1300m contest, placing a premium on stamina and genuine wet-track ability. The genuine pace will ensure there is no hiding place, and horses that are not fit or cannot handle the conditions will be exposed in the final 200m. It makes it very difficult for horses to make long, sustained runs from the back. Proven form on rain-affected going is a critical advantage.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1100m start at Forbes provides a fair run of approximately 300m to the first sweeping turn. This gives runners with speed drawn wide, like #6 Speed Of Thought and #7 Triptolemus, a reasonable opportunity to cross and find a position without being in a desperate rush. However, any significant work done here will be amplified by the Heavy 8 track. The home straight is of a decent length, offering a chance for those who have had an economical run to challenge leaders who may be tiring on the testing ground.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Maiden Plate, the field consists of inexperienced gallopers. This can lead to less reliable speed maps as horses can race erratically or not conform to their expected patterns. However, the presence of runners like #6 Speed Of Thought with a clear and established pattern adds a degree of confidence to the pace prediction. The Set Weights condition means all runners compete on a relatively level playing field regarding weight, placing the focus squarely on ability, fitness, and tactical advantages.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race will be run at a genuine tempo, exacerbated by the Heavy 8 track, creating a significant test of stamina. The key dynamic will be the pressure exerted by #7 Triptolemus on the likely leader #6 Speed Of Thought. This duel, combined with the testing ground, is likely to make the leaders vulnerable in the final stages. The race is set up perfectly for a horse that can get an economical, ground-saving run just behind the speed and has a proven ability to handle heavy going. The race will likely develop into a war of attrition from the top of the straight, favouring the strongest finisher over a horse with a brilliant, but short, turn of foot.
✅Most Advantaged
#1 Caravanserai The map looks ideal. He is drawn to get the perfect run in the box seat, conserving vital energy while the leaders absorb pressure. Crucially, he has a Rosehill trial win on a Heavy 8 in his history, demonstrating a clear ability to handle the conditions. His last-start second, where he was strong late after being held up, suggests he has the fitness to handle a testing 1100m.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#7 Triptolemus While he has early speed, drawing the outside barrier is a significant negative. He will be forced to expend considerable energy to either cross and sit on-pace or risk being caught three-wide without cover. On a Heavy 8 track, this early effort is highly likely to drain his stamina, leaving him vulnerable over the final furlong.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis points towards horses with both a favourable map and proven wet-track credentials.
- Primary Focus: #1 Caravanserai appears to have the most compelling profile. His combination of an ideal barrier, a ground-saving map, and demonstrated heavy track ability makes him a logical contender.
- Risks: #6 Speed Of Thought and #7 Triptolemus are likely to set the pace but are at risk of being softened up by the combination of pace pressure and the demanding Heavy 8 surface. They must be considered vulnerable late.
- Value/Exotics: #2 Spirit Of Saintly is an interesting runner. His last start third was on a Heavy 8 at Warren, proving he handles the conditions. He will settle off the speed and could be the one charging late if the leaders tire as expected. He is a strong consideration for trifectas and quinellas. #3 Miss Adamas also gets a good run from her inside draw and can feature if she handles the ground.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Caravanserai
Spirit Of Saintly
Miss Adamas
Speed Of Thought
Triptolemus
Pure Melody
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