Walker Family Showcase Super Mdn Hcp
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 3 at Forbes
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of a dedicated leader in #6 Blackfish ensures a solid tempo. This will be amplified by potential pressure from others who have shown on-pace tendencies. The Heavy 8 track will make the pace feel stronger than it is, ensuring a true test of stamina over the 1300m.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#6 Blackfish is the most probable leader. It will have to work from barrier 9 to cross but has a consistent pattern of leading. It may be joined or pressured by #16 Blarney Stone if it pushes forward from its wide alley.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#12 Rock All Night is drawn ideally in barrier 3 to take the box seat or sit one-off-the-rail just behind the speed. #1 Castro should use its low draw (4) to settle in the first four. #4 Ishikari is also likely to be in this group, looking for a spot in the running line.
🏃♂️Midfield
This will be a large group. #3 Initiate typically settles here and from gate 8 should find a spot mid-pack, possibly three-wide with cover. #11 Mosca Luna will look to use barrier 1 to trail along the fence, while #14 Wolf Island, #7 Haronya, and #15 Uno Gusto will likely be forced to settle in this division from their wider draws.
🐌Backmarkers
Horses drawn extremely wide or with a pattern of settling rearward will be back. #8 Brandywine has a horror draw in 16 and has no option but to go back to last or near-last. #9 Capricious Belle (14) and #13 Send Me Grey (11) also map to be in the second half of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position on a Heavy 8, the inside section of the track is likely to be significantly chopped up as the meeting progresses. Jockeys may look to steer away from the rail in the straight to find what they perceive to be better going. This can negate the advantage of an inside draw and benefit horses that can peel wide with momentum at the top of the straight.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 8 track is the single most important factor. It will severely test the stamina of every runner and nullify the turn-of-foot of many. Horses that cannot handle wet ground are at a significant disadvantage; notably, #13 Send Me Grey and #9 Capricious Belle have both "failed to handle going" on wet tracks in the past. Conversely, proven wet trackers are hugely advantaged. The testing conditions will make the genuine pace feel even more taxing, potentially setting the race up for a strong horse that can sustain a run from just off the speed.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1300m start at Forbes provides a reasonable run from a chute into the course proper before the first bend. This gives horses drawn wide a chance to cross if they have superior speed. However, on a Heavy 8 surface, burning that early energy can be costly. The long, flat home straight will provide an opportunity for horses who have had an economical run to finish off, but making up significant ground in the heavy going will be a monumental task. The distance will feel more like a testing 1500m.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Maiden Handicap, the form is inherently less reliable than in higher grades. Horses are inexperienced and can produce runs contrary to their established patterns, adding a layer of uncertainty to the speed map. The handicap conditions mean weights are somewhat compressed, but carrying top weight of 59.0kg like #1 Castro will be a significant burden on the Heavy 8 track.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be run at a genuine tempo, led by #6 Blackfish, likely under some pressure. The Heavy 8 track will make this a true slog, placing the emphasis squarely on stamina and proven wet-track ability. The leaders who work early from wide gates will be vulnerable late. The ideal position will be just off the speed, conserving energy before launching a sustained run in the straight, likely away from the potentially inferior ground on the inside fence.
✅Most Advantaged
#12 Rock All Night (3) The map looks perfect for this horse. From barrier 3, it can take an economical sit directly behind the speed. It has shown it can handle a heavy track over further, so the drop back to a testing 1300m should be ideal. It is positioned to save ground and be presented at the right time.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#8 Brandywine (16) Faces an almost impossible task. The barrier dictates it will settle near the rear of the field. Making up that much ground on a Heavy 8 track against a big field will require an exceptional performance. Additionally, #6 Blackfish (9) is disadvantaged by the combination of its front-running style, a wide barrier, and a heavy track, which will require a huge effort to sustain.
💰Betting Considerations
- The analysis strongly favours horses with proven heavy track form who have drawn to get an economical run just off the pace. #12 Rock All Night fits this profile perfectly and is a key contender.
- Be extremely cautious of horses with poor wet track records (#13 Send Me Grey, #9 Capricious Belle) and those drawn very wide who will either be caught deep or have to go too far back (#8 Brandywine).
- The leaders drawn wide, #6 Blackfish and #16 Blarney Stone, are likely to be vulnerable in the concluding stages after working hard early on the testing ground. They represent significant risk.
- Value may be found in horses like #3 Initiate, who handles soft ground and is consistent. While drawn awkwardly, it could run into the placings if the leaders tire as expected. #1 Castro is a wildcard; the trial win on a Heavy 8 is a positive, but race pressure is a different query.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Castro
Initiate
Ishikari
Blackfish
Haronya
Brandywine
Capricious Belle
Mosca Luna
Rock All Night
Send Me Grey
Wolf Island
Uno Gusto
Blarney Stone
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