Forbes Shire Council Showcase Country Boosted (Bm58)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 5 at Forbes
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map points to a solidly run race. There are multiple horses who either lead or race on the speed, several of whom are drawn to press forward. The Heavy 8 track will make the tempo feel even more demanding.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#9 Geostorm is the most likely to find the rail and lead. Expect significant pressure from #3 Slush Fund, who will have to work across from a wide gate.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#4 Motorboat is drawn to get the perfect run in the box seat (1-out, 1-back) or leader's back. #7 Bobby's Secret will push forward from barrier 11 to find a position, though risks being caught wide. #12 Sapphires Son can use its low draw (3) to hold a handy spot, while #2 Give Me Joy will be prominent if it begins cleanly.
🏃♂️Midfield
This division will be led by #8 Turnaway and #11 Tillman, who should find comfortable spots with cover from their middle draws. #5 Street Swagger will likely be ridden patiently from its wide gate (9) to find a spot in the three-wide running line with cover. The unknowns, #1 Sorry Sunshine and #10 Painite, are expected to settle here.
🐌Backmarkers
#6 Overflow Miss is the designated closer and will settle at or near the rear of the field from the widest barrier.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position on a Heavy 8 track, the inside section could become chopped up and inferior ground as the meeting progresses. Jockeys may look to shift to the middle or wider parts of the track in the straight to find a better lane. This can negate the advantage of an inside draw and may assist horses swooping from wider out. Horses like #4 Motorboat and #12 Sapphires Son will get an economical run early, but may need to navigate away from the fence in the straight.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 8 rating is the single most important factor. It will make this a grueling test of stamina and significantly advantage proven wet-track specialists. The predicted strong early pace will be even more taxing on this surface, setting the race up for horses who can sustain a long run from off the pace. Horses without proven form on heavy going are at a major disadvantage. The efforts of leaders will be magnified, and they will be extremely vulnerable in the final 200m.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1400m start at Forbes provides a fair run to the first turn, allowing horses with pace drawn wide (like #3 Slush Fund) a chance to cross. However, the long home straight is the key feature. On a Heavy 8 surface, this straight will feel endless for the leaders, especially if they've gone too hard early. This configuration brings strong finishers and genuine wet-trackers right into play, as stamina becomes the paramount factor.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 58 handicap, the field has a mix of form lines and abilities. However, the presence of multiple on-pace runners adds a degree of reliability to the speed map. The heavy track will test the class and fitness of every runner, and the weights will be felt. Horses proven at the distance and on wet ground under these weights hold a distinct advantage.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be a war of attrition. A strong early pace, dictated by #9 Geostorm and pressured by #3 Slush Fund, is highly probable. This, combined with the sapping Heavy 8 track, creates a scenario where the leaders and on-pace runners who do any extra work will struggle to see out the 1400m journey. The race shape strongly favours horses who can handle the ground, settle midfield or worse, and produce a sustained closing burst down the long Forbes straight. The race will likely develop into a slog home from the 600m mark, where stamina and wet-track prowess will be decisive.
✅Most Advantaged
#5 Street Swagger (9) The race sets up perfectly for this horse. He is a proven heavy track winner, taking out a race on a Heavy 8 at Cowra by coming from well back in the field. The predicted strong tempo is exactly what he needs to tire out the leaders. The wide draw allows Wendy Peel to keep him out of the early speed battle and find the better ground out wide in the straight.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 Slush Fund (10) This horse faces a torrid task. It is drawn wide, likes to race forward, and can over-race. It will be forced to burn considerable energy early to cross and challenge for the lead on a Heavy 8 track. This profile makes it highly susceptible to tiring badly in the final stages. #7 Bobby's Secret (11) is in a similar, difficult position.
💰Betting Considerations
- The primary focus should be on runners with demonstrated proficiency on Heavy tracks. Form on Good or Soft ground is largely irrelevant here.
- The predicted race shape suggests opposing the leaders, particularly those who have to work hard from wide barriers (#3 Slush Fund). They are likely to be vulnerable and potentially over-bet.
- Value is likely to be found with strong finishers who can handle the conditions. #5 Street Swagger is the standout profile. #11 Tillman, who ran second on a Soft 6 and has placed on heavy, could also run on into the placings from a midfield position if he handles the ground.
- A horse like #9 Geostorm is a risk/reward proposition. He loves to lead and has won on a Heavy 9, but the pace pressure is a major concern. If he gets any peace up front, he could be hard to run down, but the map suggests that is unlikely.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Sorry Sunshine
Give Me Joy
Slush Fund
Motorboat
Street Swagger
Overflow Miss
Bobby's Secret
Turnaway
Geostorm
Painite
Tillman
Sapphires Son
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