Forbes Scrap Metal / Carlton & United Breweries Showcase Hcp (C1)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 6 at Forbes
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map presents a conflict for the lead which should ensure a solid tempo, especially on the testing ground. There are two designated leaders with contrasting barriers, which is the primary driver of the pace. The Heavy 8 track will make any early pressure feel even more significant in the final stages.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#8 Avvertimento is the most probable leader from the inside draw. #6 Rail Trail will be forced to press forward from the extreme outside and will either challenge for the lead or be left posted wide on the pace.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#4 Just On Fire is drawn perfectly in barrier 2 to take the coveted "box seat" run, trailing the speed. #15 Platinum Warrior can use its good gate (6) to land in an ideal on-pace position, likely one-off-the-rail. #14 Pontoon Prince will aim to slot into this group but risks being caught wide.
🏃♂️Midfield
#1 Unreal Expectation (11), #7 A Boy Named Soo (9), and #12 Luna Angel (10) are all likely to settle in the running line, mid-pack, seeking cover. Their wide-ish draws mean they'll likely be three-wide with cover or slightly worse than midfield.
🐌Backmarkers
#9 Great Southernland, #10 Green Pineapple, and #17 Hallowed Star are all habitual backmarkers and will settle at or near the rear of the field. From barrier 17, #16 Hasime is also expected to drift back to find a position.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position on a Heavy 8 track, the inside section could become chopped up and inferior ground as the day progresses. While saving ground is always important, especially on testing tracks, jockeys may look to shift to the centre of the track in the straight to find a better lane. Runners drawn to get an economical run near the rail (like #4 Just On Fire) have an initial advantage, but horses that are trapped on the worst part of the track late could be disadvantaged. Those caught wide without cover will be severely penalised by the conditions.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 8 track is the single most important factor. This will turn the 1400m contest into a true test of stamina, likely feeling closer to a mile. Horses with proven form on wet ground are at a significant advantage. The predicted strong tempo will be amplified by the conditions, ensuring that leaders who over-exert themselves early will be extremely vulnerable in the final 200m. The race is set up for a strong, proven wet-tracker who gets an economical run and can sustain a long run home. Making up ground from the back will be difficult, but not impossible if the leaders have gone too hard.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1400m start at Forbes provides a reasonable run of approximately 400m to the first turn. This gives horses a chance to find a position, but it is still a significant disadvantage for those drawn very wide, like #6 Rail Trail, who will have to do a lot of work to cross the field. The Forbes track has a relatively short home straight of around 350m, which can often favour horses on the pace who can kick for home off the turn. However, the predicted strong tempo on a Heavy 8 may negate this, setting it up for those with superior stamina who have had a softer run.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Class 1 Handicap, the field consists of horses still developing their race craft, which can lead to more unpredictable speed maps. However, the Showcase status often attracts a higher calibre of jockey, which can add some tactical reliability. The handicap nature means horses with proven wet track ability carrying lighter weights could have a distinct advantage over their higher-weighted rivals in the punishing conditions.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race projects to be a war of attrition. The speed map points towards a genuine, if not strong, tempo, driven by the inside leader #8 Avvertimento and the wide-drawn #6 Rail Trail. On a Heavy 8 surface, this pace scenario will severely test the stamina of every runner. The race is unlikely to be won by a horse that does excess work early. The prime tactical position is just off the speed, saving ground, before making one sustained run in the straight. Backmarkers with a strong finishing burst and proven wet track credentials will be right in the finish if the leaders falter as expected. The race will likely be won by the fittest horse who handles the conditions and has the most energy reserved for the final furlong.
✅Most Advantaged
#4 Just On Fire (2) The map sets up perfectly for this horse. From barrier 2, jockey Matthew Cahill can have it settled in the box seat, doing no work behind a contested lead. It will save every inch of ground on the heavy track and can be presented at the top of the short straight with a full tank of fuel. This tactical setup gives it a significant edge.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#6 Rail Trail (19) This horse faces an almost impossible tactical situation. As a natural leader drawn in the car park, it must either burn an enormous amount of energy to find the front or be caught at least four-wide with no cover for the entire trip. On a Heavy 8, either scenario is a recipe for severe fatigue in the home straight.
💰Betting Considerations
This analysis suggests a betting strategy focused on stamina, economical runs, and proven wet track form.
- Risk: Be very cautious of the leaders, particularly #6 Rail Trail (19) due to the barrier and #8 Avvertimento (3) who could get caught in a costly speed battle.
- Primary Focus: #4 Just On Fire (2) profiles as the horse with the most favourable map and should be a key consideration. Its ability to get the perfect run is a major asset.
- Value Opportunity: The strong tempo on heavy ground brings the backmarkers into play. #10 Green Pineapple (4) has a history of being "slowly away" but has an excellent record on wet ground, including a win on a Heavy 10 and placings on Soft 7 and Heavy 8 tracks. With a strong pace to run at, it represents a strong chance to run over the top of them late and could be a source of value.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Unreal Expectation
Just On Fire
Rail Trail
A Boy Named Soo
Avvertimento
Great Southernland
Green Pineapple
Luna Angel
Pontoon Prince
Platinum Warrior
Hasime
Hallowed Star
Ready for an Edge?
Join our free newsletter for expert analysis and data-backed selections delivered every Wednesday and Saturday.