Bankstown Sports Forbes Cup

With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly, at least early in the meeting. However, for a late race on a Heavy 8, the inside section is highly likely to be chopped up and inferior ground. Jockeys will probably look to peel off the fence from the 600m mark, searching for firmer going in the middle of the track. This could nullify the advantage of an inside barrier and potentially benefit those who can make their runs slightly wider in the straight with momentum.

The Heavy 8 rating is the single most critical factor. This will be a gruelling test of stamina over the mile. The strong predicted pace will ensure there are no easy sectionals, and horses who are not genuine wet-trackers or are suspect at a strongly run 1600m will be found out. The conditions will favour horses with proven ability on heavy ground and will make it extremely difficult for backmarkers to accelerate quickly from the rear. The race will be won by the strongest, not necessarily the fastest, horse.

The 1600m start at Forbes offers a fair run to the first turn, but it is not a long, sweeping bend. This means horses drawn wide without superior speed are at a high risk of being caught deep. The track itself is a typical country circuit where on-pace runners are often advantaged. The relatively short straight makes it difficult for backmarkers to make up significant ground, a factor that will be amplified by the testing Heavy 8 surface. Sustaining a long, wide run will be nearly impossible.

As an Open Handicap and a feature country cup, the race carries prestige which encourages genuine riding tactics. The weight scale is important; the top weight #1 Another One carrying 62.0kg on a Heavy 8 faces a monumental task against lighter-weighted rivals. Horses dropping back from city grade like #3 High Dandy often find these races suitable, but must handle the unique pressures of a country cup on a wet track.