Club Forbes Showcase Hcp (C2)

With the rail in the True position on a Heavy 8, the inside section of the track is at risk of being chopped up and becoming inferior ground as the meeting progresses. While drawing inside allows runners like #3 Never Fails and #6 Abstruse to save ground, they may need to get off the fence in the straight to find better going. This could slightly negate the advantage of the inside draw and favour horses fanning wider with momentum.

The Heavy 8 track is the single most important factor. This will be a gruelling test of stamina and wet-track capability. The strong early pace will ensure there is no hiding place, and horses without a genuine affinity for heavy going will be exposed a long way from home. Leaders who go too hard will be extremely vulnerable late. This sets the race up for tough, proven wet-trackers who can handle the pressure and still produce a finish. It transforms the 1100m sprint into a real slog.

The 1100m start at Forbes provides a fair run to the first bend, which gives wider-drawn speed horses like #12 Pattera a chance to cross. However, doing so requires significant energy expenditure, which is amplified on a Heavy 8 surface. The straight is not excessively long, meaning horses that are too far back turning for home face a difficult task to make up the required ground, especially if the leaders haven't completely stopped. The race will be won or lost based on who can sustain their effort in the testing ground after a genuinely run first 600m.

As a Class 2 Handicap, there is a mix of form lines and abilities. Some horses are proven at this country level, while others are dropping in grade. The handicap nature of the race gives lighter-weighted horses an advantage, but only if they can effectively handle the challenging conditions. Inexperienced or non-genuine horses will struggle with the combination of pace and a heavy track.