Sportsbet Mdn Plate
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 1 at Gawler
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The race lacks a designated, high-pressure leader. The speed is concentrated in the inside barriers, which should allow the front-runners to control the tempo without being forced into a speed battle.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#2 Cracken Good Time is the most probable leader from barrier 3. #1 Always Bold will be right there from barrier 2, either sitting at its girth or taking the trail in the box seat.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
If ridden aggressively to overcome the draw, #4 Kaotic Billy could land in this position, though it risks being caught wide. From an ideal draw in barrier 4, #9 Los Alamoss has the opportunity to be ridden more positively and settle closer than its usual midfield pattern.
🏃♂️Midfield
This will be the most congested part of the field. #10 Oh Lovey No (7) and #8 Left Hand Lover (5) should find positions with cover mid-pack. #5 Santella (11) and #12 Sonic Rip (13) are likely to be forced to settle here or further back from their wide alleys, potentially caught without cover.
🐌Backmarkers
#7 Grinzinger Joy (9) and #3 Elnalad (8) have shown a clear pattern of getting back in their limited starts. #6 Dark Helmet (10) and #11 One Last Reward (6) are also expected to settle in the rear half of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
The rail is out +2m in the sections from 1700m-1500m and 800m-400m. This slightly tightens the track, particularly around the home turn. Horses that can save ground along the rail will have a slight advantage. Those forced to travel wide around the 800m-400m bend will cover significant extra ground, which will be telling on the testing track surface. This setup benefits on-pace runners drawn inside.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 7 rating is a critical factor. The surface will be testing and will place a significant premium on stamina and the ability to handle rain-affected going. Leaders who expend too much energy will be vulnerable in the final 200m. The moderate pace prediction may allow on-pace runners to conserve energy, but the grinding nature of the track will still bring horses with proven wet-track form and stamina to the fore. For the first race of the day, any potential inside track bias should hold up.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1700m start at Gawler is from a chute, providing a long, fair run of over 800m to the first significant turn. This gives all runners, including those drawn wide, an opportunity to find a position. However, it can also mean that horses without natural early speed get shuffled back and caught wide. The home straight is of a reasonable length, which will give closers their chance, particularly if the Soft 7 track makes the leaders tired.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Maiden Plate, the race is filled with inexperienced and inconsistent horses. Speed maps can be less reliable as tactics can change unexpectedly. Horses with behavioural issues noted in stewards' reports, such as #1 Always Bold (keen) and #8 Left Hand Lover (fractious), add further uncertainty. The set-weights condition favours horses that have demonstrated superior ability, even without winning, as they are not penalised for strong placings.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be run at a moderate tempo, controlled by the inside pair of #2 Cracken Good Time and #1 Always Bold. The Soft 7 track condition will be the dominant influence, making this a true test of stamina over 1700m. The combination of a moderate pace and a testing surface should favour horses positioned on-pace or just behind the speed, provided they handle the conditions. Backmarkers will need the leaders to falter late or for the pace to be stronger than anticipated to come into the finish.
✅Most Advantaged
#2 Cracken Good Time This horse gets a perfect tactical setup. It draws ideally in barrier 3 to lead or sit on-pace without spending extra energy, has a history of handling heavy ground (placed at Gawler on a Heavy 8), and is proven at the distance. The predicted moderate tempo will allow it to dictate the race and kick strongly from the front.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#12 Sonic Rip From barrier 13, this horse faces a difficult task. It will likely be forced to either be snagged to the rear of the field, leaving it with too much ground to make up on a soft track, or press forward and risk being caught three-wide with no cover for the entire journey. Either scenario is a significant disadvantage. #5 Santella (11) and #4 Kaotic Billy (12) face similar challenges from their wide draws.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly suggests focusing on horses with a combination of a favourable barrier draw, an on-pace running style, and proven form on rain-affected tracks.
- #2 Cracken Good Time profiles as a high-probability contender given its map advantage and proven wet-track ability.
- #1 Always Bold is also mapped to get every chance but carries a risk due to its tendency to over-race, which could be costly on a testing Soft 7 track.
- For value, #9 Los Alamoss is one to consider. It draws well (4) for the first time in a while and has been running on consistently. If it handles the ground and can use the gate to settle closer, it could be a strong finishing threat.
- It is advisable to be against horses drawn wide, particularly #12 Sonic Rip, #5 Santella, and #4 Kaotic Billy, as they are likely to endure tough runs that will sap their energy reserves in the taxing conditions.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Always Bold
Cracken Good Time
Elnalad
Kaotic Billy
Santella
Dark Helmet
Grinzinger Joy
Left Hand Lover
Los Alamoss
Oh Lovey No
One Last Reward
Sonic Rip
Ready for an Edge?
Join our free newsletter for expert analysis and data-backed selections delivered every Wednesday and Saturday.