Holdfast Insurance Brokers Mdn Plate
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 2 at Gawler
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of a designated leader from an ideal barrier, combined with pressure from multiple on-pace runners drawn wider, points towards a solid tempo. The large field size will also encourage horses to push forward to secure a position.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#16 Battle Jack is the most likely to find the front from barrier 3. It may be challenged early by #4 Indiamo who has to burn energy from the outside gate, and potentially #12 Perilous Lass who will also look to cross over.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#11 Nadege is beautifully drawn in barrier 6 to stalk the speed, likely landing in the one-one position. #5 It's Only Magic (gate 5) and #2 Foolish Lad (gate 2) can use their inside draws to trail the leaders on the fence or one-off, securing economical runs. #12 Perilous Lass may end up posted three-wide on pace if unable to cross.
🏃♂️Midfield
This will be a crowded group. #9 Wrath has the best draw of this bunch (4) to save ground. #3 Hi Ya Henry (11), #14 Sharoha (13), #8 Simply Sid (14) and #15 Matino (15) are all drawn wide and risk being caught in the three-wide running line, though hopefully with cover.
🐌Backmarkers
#1 Copper Bullet, #6 Mcleod (dropping back from staying trips), and #18 Funny Feeling (habitually slow away) will settle at or near the rear of the field and will be relying on the strong tempo to tire out the leaders.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +2m in the sections from the 1700m-1500m & 800m-400m, the track will play fairly. This rail position slightly tightens the home turn. It doesn't typically create a significant bias but does reward horses that can save ground along the fence before peeling out in the straight. With a large field, being trapped on the inside behind tiring leaders can be a risk.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 7 rating is a critical factor. It will ensure a true test of stamina at 1200m and will make the task for those working hard early even tougher. The predicted strong tempo on this surface means leaders and on-pacers will be vulnerable late if they expend too much energy. The surface brings proven wet-trackers and strong finishers into play. By this time of day, the inside section of the straight may begin to chop out, potentially favouring runners making their runs down the centre of the track.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1200m start at Gawler provides a good run down the back straight to the sweeping home turn. This gives speedy horses drawn wide a chance to find a position, but it requires a sustained effort. A strong tempo will see the field strung out around this turn. The home straight is approximately 400m long, offering ample time for horses running on to make up ground, particularly if those on-pace have gone too hard early.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a large field Maiden Plate. Speed maps can be less predictable with inexperienced runners, although many here are well-exposed. The big field increases the likelihood of horses being caught wide and suffering interference. Set Weights conditions benefit the more naturally talented horses who are not penalised for strong performances.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race projects to be run at a genuine to strong tempo, set by #16 Battle Jack and fuelled by pressure from wide-drawn on-pacers #4 Indiamo and #12 Perilous Lass. On a Soft 7 track, this early speed battle will be taxing and sets the race up perfectly for horses that can get an economical run with cover just off the pace. The long Gawler straight and testing conditions will see the strongest and fittest horses prevail. Closers will have their chance to run over the top of the tiring leaders.
✅Most Advantaged
#11 Nadege (11). From barrier 6, she is drawn to get the perfect tactical run. She can settle just behind the speed battle, conserving energy while the leaders burn fuel. Her on-pace pattern and soft track form make her ideally suited to the race shape and conditions. She should be poised to strike at the top of the straight.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#4 Indiamo (4). Despite consistent form, the barrier is a killer. As a natural on-pacer, he is forced to either do a huge amount of work to cross the large field or be trapped three or four deep with no cover. Both scenarios are poison on a Soft 7 track and will severely compromise his finishing effort.
💰Betting Considerations
- The race shape strongly favours horses drawn to get an economical run in transit. Focus on runners drawn in barriers 2-8 that can take a sit.
- Be very cautious of the on-pace runners drawn wide, specifically #4 Indiamo and #12 Perilous Lass. The map is heavily against them.
- The combination of a strong pace and a Soft 7 track could produce a result where a strong finisher at value odds runs over the top. Look for horses with proven wet track credentials who can sustain a long run.
- #11 Nadege presents as the horse with the most favourable map and should be given strong consideration. #5 It's Only Magic and #9 Wrath are others who are drawn to receive advantageous runs.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Copper Bullet
Foolish Lad
Hi Ya Henry
Indiamo
It's Only Magic
Mcleod
Simply Sid
Wrath
Nadege
Perilous Lass
Sharoha
Matino
Battle Jack
Funny Feeling
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