LJ Hooker Property Specialists | Gawler & Barossa Hcp (56)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 4 at Gawler
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The pace is anticipated to be genuine due to the presence of key speed influences drawn middle to wide. There is enough pressure to ensure the race is truly run, which will be exacerbated by the Soft 7 track demanding sustained effort.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#11 Miss Artfire is the most likely to press on and find the front, despite the wide draw. #9 Tobiwashi has the speed to challenge and could end up leading or sitting parked just outside the leader.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#8 Grandellie is drawn ideally in barrier 3 to land in the box seat or one-out, one-back, enjoying an economical run just off the speed. #6 Alpine Joy has the tactical versatility from gate 7 to push forward and settle in the first four or five runners.
🏃♂️Midfield
#12 Chilko Lake will likely look to use the inside draw (1) to settle midfield along the rail, though its history of slow starts is a risk. #1 Lunarshot will probably be forced to take a sit from barrier 9 to find cover, landing mid-pack. #4 Eleanor Queen draws well enough in gate 5 to find a comfortable spot in the running line, likely mid-division.
🐌Backmarkers
#2 Suggestive Miss, #5 Shocking Habit, #7 Tara Rani, and #10 Dissmatic are all horses that naturally settle in the second half of the field. Tara Rani's wide draw (10) cements a rearward position, while Dissmatic's history of poor barrier manners means she will almost certainly be at the tail.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +2m in sections (800m-400m), the track may play slightly towards those on-pace who can save ground around the turn. It can make it marginally more difficult for horses fanning wide on the bend to make up the extra ground. Runners drawn low who can hold a position, such as #8 Grandellie and potentially #12 Chilko Lake, could gain a slight advantage by cutting the corner into the straight.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Soft 7, which will be a significant factor. This ground will test the stamina of all runners, especially at the end of 1200m. The genuine tempo will ensure that leaders who expend too much energy early will be vulnerable late. Horses with proven wet track form will be heavily advantaged. The surface will blunt the acceleration of many, favouring strong, grinding finishers over those with a sharp turn of foot. It will be hard work, and fitness will be paramount.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1200m start at Gawler provides a fair run of approximately 300m to the first turn. This gives horses drawn wide, like #11 Miss Artfire, a chance to cross and find a position without being posted deep for too long, but it will require early effort. The long home straight at Gawler gives backmarkers an opportunity to make ground, however, this is heavily contingent on the track condition and pace.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Restricted 56 Handicap for fillies and mares, a lower-grade event where form can be inconsistent. The handicap conditions mean proven performers carry more weight. Many runners here are struggling for a win, making tactical decisions and jockey execution even more critical. In this class, a horse that handles the conditions and gets the right run can often outperform its paper form.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The map points to a genuinely run race, with #11 Miss Artfire and #9 Tobiwashi ensuring an honest tempo. This setup, combined with the demanding Soft 7 track, will create a test of stamina. The leaders will have to work, which could set the race up for a horse sitting just off the pace that handles the wet ground. Backmarkers will get their chance if they are strong enough to make a sustained run on the heavy surface, but they risk being left flat-footed if the on-pace runners don't come back to them. The race will likely be won by a fit horse who gets an economical run and can handle the testing conditions.
✅Most Advantaged
#8 Grandellie (3) is drawn perfectly to get a dream run. From barrier 3, Teagan Voorham can position her in the box seat or one-off, saving crucial energy behind a genuine speed battle. If she handles the Soft 7, she is poised to peel out at the top of the straight and present with a winning chance without having done the early donkey work.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#11 Miss Artfire (11) faces a tough task. As a natural leader drawn wide, she must burn energy early to cross the field. On a Soft 7 track, this early exertion is likely to leave her vulnerable to challengers in the final 200m. Other backmarkers like #7 Tara Rani (10) and #10 Dissmatic (4) are also disadvantaged, as they will be a long way back and need to make up significant ground on a tiring surface, which is a low-percentage play.
💰Betting Considerations
The key to this race is identifying horses who will appreciate the genuine tempo and, most importantly, handle the Soft 7 track. The predicted race shape suggests targeting runners who can secure an economical, on-pace run without being part of the speed battle.
- Primary Focus: #8 Grandellie profiles as the horse with the most favourable map setup. She should get the run of the race and is a strong contender if she can produce her best on the wet ground.
- Value/Risk: #9 Tobiwashi will be right in the firing line but is a consistent on-pace runner. If she can get a slightly easier lead than anticipated or out-tough Miss Artfire, she could stick on for a result.
- Fade/Lay: #11 Miss Artfire appears to have too much against her from the wide gate on a testing track. The energy required to lead will likely prove costly. Backmarkers will need to be superior wet-trackers to be considered, as making up ground will be a monumental effort.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Lunarshot
Suggestive Miss
Eleanor Queen
Shocking Habit
Alpine Joy
Grandellie
Tobiwashi
Dissmatic
Miss Artfire
Chilko Lake
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