Sportsbet Fast Form (Bm70)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 2 at Sandown-Lakeside
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of two runners with a history of leading or racing right on the speed ensures a legitimate tempo. #5 Nepravda is a natural front-runner whose last two wins came from leading all the way. #3 Brandjam has also led to win and consistently races in the first pair. Drawn low, it will be intent on holding a forward position. This likely speed duel will prevent a slowly run race and give all runners their chance. - **#5 Nepravda:** The primary speed influence. From barrier 5, expect Daniel Stackhouse to press forward and attempt to cross and lead, as is its established pattern. - **#3 Brandjam:** Drawn perfectly in barrier 2 to kick up and either hold the rail in front or sit directly on the leader's flank. Will not allow an easy lead. - **#4 Stormbourg:** While not a leader, it possesses enough tactical speed from barrier 3 to sit in a prominent position, ensuring the leaders don't get away with cheap sectionals.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly without a significant bias. This gives an advantage to horses drawn inside who can save ground, like #3 Brandjam, #4 Stormbourg, and #6 The Bantam. However, in a small field, being caught wide is less of a concern. The key will be finding the best going in the straight on the Soft 5 surface; jockeys may look to come a few horses off the fence if the inside ground is chopping out by this stage of the day.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
A Soft 5 rating provides an ideal surface with some give, which should suit most runners. It will, however, place a greater emphasis on stamina, especially if the genuine pace eventuates. Leaders who engage in a speed battle will be more vulnerable in the final 200m than they would be on a Good track. Horses with a proven record on soft ground and a strong finishing burst will be suited. The conditions will ensure this is a true test at the 1200m trip.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1200m start at Sandown-Lakeside provides a fair run to the sweeping home turn. This allows horses with speed to establish their positions without being immediately under pressure. The long, cambered home straight of over 400m is a defining feature. A genuine pace, as predicted here, will test the stamina of the leaders and give runners from midfield and beyond a chance to build momentum and run on, provided they are not too far back at the turn.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a BM70 for 4-year-olds, this is a competitive race for progressive types. The handicap conditions are significant; top weight #1 Charcoals carries 61.0kg, conceding 4.5kg to #3 Brandjam and 6kg to #6 The Bantam. This weight difference could be a crucial factor in the final stages on a soft track, potentially blunting the finish of the top weight while assisting the lighter-weighted runners. The small field of six can lead to tactical affairs, though the presence of two leaders should ensure an honest contest.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be run at a genuine tempo, dictated by a likely speed battle between #5 Nepravda and #3 Brandjam. This tempo will ensure the race is not a sit-and-sprint, providing an opportunity for those sitting just off the pace to have the last crack at the leaders. The long Sandown straight will be the proving ground, and the horses that get a comfortable run in transit will be poised to strike. The race will likely develop into a test of who can sustain their run best from the 400m mark.
✅Most Advantaged
#4 Stormbourg (4) From barrier 3, it maps to receive the perfect trip. Jordan Childs can settle the horse in the box seat or one-out-one-back, directly behind the expected speed duel. This allows Stormbourg to conserve energy while the leaders do the hard work, before being presented with a clear run at the top of the long straight. This is the ideal tactical scenario.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#6 The Bantam (1) Its tendency to begin slowly is a major drawback from the inside barrier. It is at a very high risk of being shuffled to the rear of the field along the rail, requiring a significant amount of luck to find clear running in the straight. Additionally, #3 Brandjam (2) is in a tough spot, likely to be embroiled in a pace battle with a dedicated leader, which could leave it vulnerable late.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis points towards favouring runners who can take a trail behind the anticipated genuine speed.
- Primary Focus: #4 Stormbourg and #1 Charcoals map to get the most favourable runs in transit. They can stalk the speed and should be the strongest late if the leaders tire. Between them, #4 Stormbourg has a weight advantage.
- Identifiable Risks: Betting on the leaders, #5 Nepravda and #3 Brandjam, carries risk as they may compromise each other's chances by going too hard, too early. They would need to be a class above to fight each other off and still win.
- Potential for Upset: #2 Harpalee will be finishing on from midfield. If the pace is even stronger than anticipated and the track is playing to closers, it could represent value as it will be doing its best work late.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Charcoals
Harpalee
Brandjam
Stormbourg
Nepravda
The Bantam
Ready for an Edge?
Join our free newsletter for expert analysis and data-backed selections delivered every Wednesday and Saturday.