Sportsbet Green Tick (Bm64)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 6 at Sandown-Lakeside
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of multiple horses with established forward-going patterns points towards a genuinely run race. There is enough pressure here to ensure the field doesn't dawdle and the race becomes a true test of stamina over the 2100m journey.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#5 Aloysius is the most likely to lead from the inside draw. Expect pressure from #12 Tavistock Dancer and #7 Blacklist, who will work across from wider gates to sit on the speed. One of these three will lead, with the other two sitting prominently.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#1 Bring Forth is drawn perfectly in barrier 3 to take the box seat trail behind the leaders. #13 Tomboulder has the tactical speed to press forward from gate 9 and settle in the first four or five, likely one-off with cover. #6 Speak has the versatility to be wherever Jamie Kah desires, but a handy position with cover seems most probable from the middle draw.
🏃♂️Midfield
#10 Anthurium (gate 4) and #8 Purveyor (gate 6) are drawn to get economical runs in midfield, saving ground on the rail. #4 Untethered and #2 Morrissette will likely be forced to settle in the second half of the field, possibly three-wide with cover, due to their wide barriers.
🐌Backmarkers
#3 Shultzy is a habitual slow starter and will almost certainly sacrifice its inside draw to settle near the rear. #11 Mawhera also has a pattern of getting back and being slowly away; from the widest barrier, it will be spotting the leaders a significant start.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly without a pronounced bias. This setup typically advantages horses that can draw to save ground, making inside barriers a potential asset over this middle-distance trip. Horses like #1 Bring Forth and #10 Anthurium are well-placed to have economical journeys. The track should be in its most unbiased state, allowing jockeys to win from various positions.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Soft 5. This surface has give in it and will bring stamina to the forefront, especially with a genuine tempo expected. Horses that have proven form on soft or heavy ground will be advantaged. The conditions will ensure a searching test over 2100m, potentially making the leaders vulnerable late if they overdo it. This could play into the hands of strong finishers who handle the going and have been given a patient ride.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 2100m start at Sandown-Lakeside is located on the back straight, providing a long 700m run before the first major turn. This configuration is advantageous for horses with tactical speed drawn in middle-to-wide gates (like #7 Blacklist and #13 Tomboulder), as it gives them ample time to cross over and find a position without being bustled. The long home straight at Sandown ensures that backmarkers will have their chance to make up ground if they are good enough, provided the pace is genuine as predicted.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 64 handicap, the field is comprised of evenly matched gallopers. In these races, the tactical shape of the race and the quality of the ride are often decisive factors. The genuine pace predicted will reduce the likelihood of a major upset and should allow the fitter, stronger horses to prevail. Weight distribution is designed to be fair, placing the emphasis on current form and suitability to the conditions.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The map projects a genuinely run race with three key on-pace runners ensuring an honest tempo. This will likely set the race up for those positioned just off the speed, who can conserve energy before launching their claim in the long Sandown straight. The Soft 5 track will make the 2100m a true stamina test, disadvantaging any horse that is not fully fit or that over-exerts itself early. The race will likely develop into a sustained gallop from the 600m mark, rather than a tactical sit-and-sprint.
✅Most Advantaged
#1 Bring Forth draws perfectly in barrier 3 to land in the box seat, directly behind the anticipated speed battle. This allows jockey Luke Cartwright to have a perfect, ground-saving run and produce the horse at the top of the straight with a full tank of energy. The predicted genuine pace is exactly the scenario this horse needs to utilise its finishing burst.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#11 Mawhera faces a monumental task. As a natural backmarker who is often slowly away, drawing the extreme outside barrier (12) means it will likely settle last and be forced to make a very wide, sweeping run. While the genuine pace helps, giving up that much ground on a big track will be incredibly difficult to overcome. #3 Shultzy is also disadvantaged by its poor barrier manners, which will negate its inside draw and see it settle at the rear of the field.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly suggests focusing on horses mapped to get an advantageous run just behind the speed. #1 Bring Forth is the standout map horse and should be given every opportunity to win. #6 Speak and #10 Anthurium are others who draw to receive economical trips and could offer value. There is a significant risk associated with the likely leaders (#5 Aloysius, #7 Blacklist, #12 Tavistock Dancer) as they may engage in a costly speed duel, rendering them vulnerable late. Caution is advised for the backmarkers drawn wide, particularly #11 Mawhera and #2 Morrissette, who will require both a fast pace and considerable luck in running to feature in the finish.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Bring Forth
Morrissette
Shultzy
Untethered
Aloysius
Speak
Blacklist
Purveyor
Anthurium
Mawhera
Tavistock Dancer
Tomboulder
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