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Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 1 at Sunshine Coast
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map points to a moderate tempo, primarily dictated by the two runners with established on-pace patterns drawn inside. While not likely to be a crawl, there isn't an abundance of high-pressure speed engaged, which should allow for a relatively orderly run to the first turn.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
The lead will be contested by #11 Moonlight Kicks and #12 Shamiela. From the inside gate, #12 Shamiela is in a prime position to hold the rail. #11 Moonlight Kicks will press forward from gate 4 and will likely settle as the leader or sit outside the lead.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#6 Witness Dis draws perfectly in barrier 2 to enjoy the box-seat run directly behind the leaders. #5 Welly will have to do some work from barrier 8 but has the tactical speed to cross over and settle in the first four or five, likely one off the rail with cover.
🏃♂️Midfield
This group will be led by #3 Under Suspicion from barrier 3, who should get an economical run on the fence. #8 Perhaps Perhaps draws well in gate 5 to find a comfortable spot mid-pack with cover. #9 Sonechka will likely settle in a similar position from barrier 7. #1 Silvio Dante and #4 Blood Red will likely be in the back half of the midfield pack, needing some luck from the turn.
🐌Backmarkers
#2 Sowilo Rodina has a history of being slow away and is drawn wide in barrier 10, making a rearward position almost certain. First-starter #7 Serene Echo is drawn widest of all in gate 12 and will almost certainly be ridden patiently at the tail of the field to find its feet.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out at +9m for the entire circuit, the track will play narrower. This can sometimes advantage on-pace runners who can kick away on the turn and force closers to cover more ground to get around them. Furthermore, after recent racing, the ground closer to the rail may be more worn. Jockeys will likely be looking to get to the crown of the track in the straight, meaning horses drawn inside might need luck to get into clear running in the preferred lanes.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Soft 5. This surface will have some give in it and will place a greater emphasis on stamina at the end of 1400m. It may slightly dull the speed of the leaders and ensure the race becomes a genuine test of strength down the long straight. Horses with proven form on rain-affected going will be at a distinct advantage. The rail being out +9m on a soft surface further increases the likelihood of the inside section chopping out, potentially creating a bias towards runners making their runs down the middle to outside of the track.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1400m start at the Sunshine Coast provides a fair run of approximately 350m to the first turn, which is ample time for jockeys to find their positions without excessive urgency. This negates the disadvantage of a wide barrier for horses with tactical speed. The track's key feature is its long, sweeping home straight of over 400m. This configuration, combined with a moderate pace, ensures that all runners get their chance, allowing backmarkers to wind up and make ground if they are good enough.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Maiden Handicap, a class of race where form and speed maps can be notoriously unreliable. Horses are inexperienced, often inconsistent, and prone to racing greenly, as noted in the form of #11 Moonlight Kicks. Several runners have histories of beginning awkwardly or being slow away, which adds another layer of unpredictability to the early race shape. The handicap conditions spread the weights, theoretically giving all runners a competitive chance.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be run at a moderate tempo, set by #11 Moonlight Kicks and #12 Shamiela. This pace should be fair to all runners. The key tactical phase will be from the 600m mark, as jockeys on backmarkers will need to get moving to avoid being left flat-footed when the leaders quicken. The combination of the Soft 5 track and the +9m rail position suggests that the best ground in the straight will be away from the fence. This could make it difficult for horses in the box seat or on the rail if they get held up behind tiring leaders. The race sets up well for a horse that can travel comfortably in a midfield position, one or two horses off the fence, and launch a sustained run in the middle of the track.
✅Most Advantaged
#8 Perhaps Perhaps (5). Draws a perfect gate in 5 to land in a one-off, midfield position with cover. This will allow jockey Damien Thornton to keep the horse in a good rhythm and away from any potential traffic on the rail. From there, he can peel out into the preferred part of the track at the top of the straight and launch a strong, uninterrupted run at the leaders.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#2 Sowilo Rodina (10). This horse faces a difficult task. It has a history of being slow to begin and is drawn wide in barrier 10. From there, it will almost certainly settle near the rear of the field and will likely be forced to travel wide for much of the race. Making up significant ground on a Soft 5 track from that position will require a superior performance.
💰Betting Considerations
The predicted moderate tempo on a fair track suggests the winner will need both a good tactical position and the ability to finish strongly. Horses mapping for an economical run just off the pace appear to hold a key advantage.
- Key Chances: #6 Witness Dis maps for a perfect box-seat run but may need luck getting off the fence. #8 Perhaps Perhaps maps to get an ideal trail midfield and launch down the best part of the track. #1 Silvio Dante is a query due to his inconsistent starts, but his second over this track/distance is a strong pointer if he brings his best.
- Risks: #11 Moonlight Kicks is a risk due to its tendency to over-race and race greenly. It could be vulnerable late after setting the pace. #12 Shamiela will be on-pace but could be stuck on inferior ground near the rail if the track chops out.
- Value: Look for horses like #9 Sonechka who can settle midfield and have shown the ability to finish off their races. If the on-pace runners are found wanting on the soft ground, a horse that gets the right trail could represent value.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Silvio Dante
Sowilo Rodina
Under Suspicion
Blood Red
Welly
Witness Dis
Serene Echo
Perhaps Perhaps
Sonechka
Moonlight Kicks
Shamiela
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