Bati Rum (Bm58)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 6 at Sunshine Coast
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The pace map lacks a designated, high-pressure leader. However, there are several runners who will look to go forward to overcome awkward barriers, which should ensure an honest tempo rather than a crawl. The main speed influences will dictate a moderate, building tempo.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#3 Best Coffee is the most likely to burn some energy early to cross from the wide gate and attempt to lead or sit outside the leader. #4 Sharon Drive is another candidate to either lead or sit prominently.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#10 Toros is drawn for a perfect run, likely settling in the box seat or one-out, one-back. #13 Star Chance, an unknown quantity from barrier 1, will likely be urged to use the gate and hold a position in the first four.
🏃♂️Midfield
#1 Nagamie should be able to find a comfortable spot midfield on the fence from barrier 2. #12 Atlantic Royal will likely have to settle midfield but may be caught three-wide without cover from the wide gate if it can't slot in. #6 You And I is another unknown who will likely settle mid-pack from its wide draw.
🐌Backmarkers
A significant portion of the field will settle in the rear. This group includes #2 Turbulent, #8 Tuki Twelve, #9 Contreras, #11 Crazy Eyed Fred, and #14 The Love Of Mary, all of whom have established patterns of getting back in their races.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out at +9m for the entire circuit, the track will play significantly differently. This position often favours on-pace runners, as it can create a 'conveyor belt' effect. It makes the track circumference tighter and the straight feel shorter, making it difficult for backmarkers to make up the necessary ground, particularly if the leaders get a mid-race breather. Drawing an inside gate and having tactical speed is a major advantage.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 5 rating provides a fair racing surface with some cushion. It will bring the stamina of runners into play at the end of a testing 1600m. Horses that have done excessive work early or are not proven on soft ground may struggle late. The rail at +9m on a soft track means the inside lanes could chop out as the day progresses, potentially leading jockeys to scout for firmer ground slightly wider in the straight, which could give swoopers a narrow path if they are good enough.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1600m start at the Sunshine Coast provides a fair run down the back straight to the first turn, which allows horses drawn wide a chance to cross and find a position. However, it's a long enough run that those without sufficient speed can be left posted wide. The key feature is the long 400m home straight, which typically gives all runners a chance. However, the rail position significantly alters this dynamic.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 58 handicap, the field consists of moderately performed horses. This can lead to less reliable speed maps, as tactical decisions can be inconsistent. The top weight, #1 Nagamie (62.5kg), carries a significant burden, which will be felt in the concluding stages on the soft ground. The compressed weight scale otherwise gives most runners their chance from a weight perspective.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The combination of a moderate pace and the rail at +9m creates a racing environment that is heavily skewed towards horses positioned on or near the speed. The leaders are not expected to go at a frantic tempo, allowing them to conserve energy. The rail position will make it extremely difficult for the large contingent of backmarkers to loop the field and make a winning run. The race will likely be won by a horse that settles in the first four or five, gets an economical run, and can produce the best finishing kick from the top of the straight.
✅Most Advantaged
#10 Toros The map sets up perfectly for this horse. From barrier 3, Ben Thompson can land in a perfect trailing position, either in the box seat or one-one, without spending any energy. This horse has the required on-pace pattern to take full advantage of the +9m rail, and should be poised to strike with a full tank of fuel at the 300m mark.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#12 Atlantic Royal Drawn the outside in barrier 14, this runner faces an almost impossible task. Its pattern is to settle mid-to-back, meaning it will likely be forced to the rear of the field to find cover. From there, making up ground around the entire field with the rail at +9m will be exceptionally difficult. Other backmarkers like #2 Turbulent and #9 Contreras face a similar tactical disadvantage.
💰Betting Considerations
This analysis strongly suggests focusing on on-pace runners. Horses that typically settle in the back half of the field face a significant tactical disadvantage and represent poor betting propositions under these conditions.
- Primary Focus: #10 Toros appears to have the most favourable map and should be central to any betting strategy.
- Value/Exotics: #13 Star Chance is a wildcard from barrier 1. With no form, it's a risk, but the prime draw gives it a non-zero chance of running a cheeky race and could be included in exotic bets at potential value. #4 Sharon Drive also maps to get a good run near the speed and should be considered.
- Risks to Avoid: It is advisable to be against the backmarkers. #12 Atlantic Royal, #2 Turbulent, #9 Contreras, and #11 Crazy Eyed Fred are all significant risks due to the race shape and track configuration.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Nagamie
Turbulent
Best Coffee
Sharon Drive
You And I
Tuki Twelve
Contreras
Toros
Crazy Eyed Fred
Atlantic Royal
Star Chance
The Love Of Mary
Ready for an Edge?
Join our free newsletter for expert analysis and data-backed selections delivered every Wednesday and Saturday.