Billsons's Tangle Plate (C3)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 7 at Sunshine Coast
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map lacks significant pressure. There is only one natural leader in the field, and it has drawn the inside barrier. This sets up for a race where the tempo will likely be dictated from the front without a contest for the lead.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#2 Hector De Maris is the standout leader and should find the front with ease from the inside gate.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#7 June (3) and #8 Kariaction (5) are drawn perfectly to stalk the leader. June will likely land in the box seat, with Kariaction potentially sitting one-out-one-back. #12 Premise (7) has the tactical versatility to push forward and sit handy if the pace is slow.
🏃♂️Midfield
#11 Sacred Ted (6) and #13 Umetini (10) should find positions in the running line, though Umetini may be caught three-wide without cover initially from its barrier. #15 Pauli (9) will likely settle in the back half of the midfield pack.
🐌Backmarkers
#4 Ultimate Outcome (14) is habitually slow away and is drawn the widest, guaranteeing a spot at the rear. #1 Adelad (12) and #16 Pride An' Joy (11) also have patterns of getting back and are drawn wide, forcing them to settle near the tail of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out +9m for the entire circuit, the track will play significantly tighter. This is a distinct advantage for on-pace runners drawn inside barriers, as they can save ground and dictate terms. Conversely, it is a major disadvantage for horses drawn wide or those that get back, as they will have to cover significantly more ground to make a run, particularly around the home turn. The inside section of the track is likely to be the freshest ground.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 5 rating indicates a surface with good give. This will suit horses with proven form on rain-affected ground and will test the stamina of all runners over the 1800m journey. It may slightly blunt the finishing sprint of some, placing a greater emphasis on tactical position and toughness. In a moderately run race, it can further advantage the leaders as it becomes harder for backmarkers to make up a large deficit on the holding ground.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1800m start at the Sunshine Coast provides a long run down the back straight before the first significant turn. This gives jockeys ample time to find a position. However, the long home straight can be deceptive; in moderately run races, leaders who get a soft sectional can kick clear and be very difficult to run down, turning it into a sprint home from the 600m. The Soft 5 rating will ensure stamina is a factor, rewarding horses who can sustain a run over the full distance.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Class 3 race with set weights, which tends to favour the more naturally talented or higher-rated horses as they are not penalised for strong recent form. The field is comprised of seasoned gallopers, so the speed map should be relatively reliable, without the unpredictability of a maiden.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
All factors point towards a race dominated by those on the speed. The combination of a moderate tempo, a +9m rail position, and a Soft 5 track creates a perfect storm to favour the leader and those settled handy. #2 Hector De Maris is set to receive an uncontested lead and can dictate the race to suit. Horses like #7 June and #8 Kariaction will get economical runs just behind the speed. The race will likely develop into a sprint home from the 600m mark, and the backmarkers, especially those drawn wide, face a monumental task to make up the required ground.
✅Most Advantaged
#2 Hector De Maris [Gets every possible favour from the map. The inside draw, lack of pace pressure, and a rail position that advantages leaders make it the horse to beat from a tactical standpoint. It can control the tempo and kick on the turn, making it very difficult to catch.] #7 June is also in an ideal spot to get a perfect trail from barrier 3.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#4 Ultimate Outcome [Faces an almost impossible task. Its pattern of being slow away, combined with the extreme outside barrier and the rail at +9m, means it will be detached at the rear and will have to make a sustained, wide run on a track that will favour those on the fence. #1 Adelad and #16 Pride An' Joy are similarly disadvantaged by their wide draws and get-back styles.]
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly suggests focusing on the on-pace runners drawn inside barriers 1-8. The predicted race shape provides a clear advantage to this group and a significant disadvantage to the backmarkers. #2 Hector De Maris and #7 June appear to have the most favourable setups. Bets should be structured around these on-pace profiles. A Quinella/Exacta combining the most likely on-pace runners (#2, #7, #8) could be a strategic play. It is advisable to avoid backing any of the wide-drawn backmarkers (#1, #4, #16) as they will require a complete pace meltdown and/or a severe track bias to win, neither of which is anticipated.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Adelad
Hector De Maris
Ultimate Outcome
June
Kariaction
Sacred Ted
Premise
Umetini
Pauli
Pride An' Joy
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