Manhari (Bm64)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 6 at Ballarat Synthetic
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of a dedicated, high-speed leader in #2 Supervise ensures the tempo will be honest from the outset. While not likely to be a cut-throat, high-pressure affair, there are several other runners with tactical speed who will keep the pressure on.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#2 Supervise is the most likely leader. He possesses superior gate speed and has a pattern of going straight to the front. He should be able to cross and lead from barrier 4 without excessive effort.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#3 El Pibe De Oro is drawn perfectly in barrier 2 to take the coveted box-seat trail directly behind the leader. #5 Cosmic Rhapsody should use barrier 1 to be on the fence, three-back (the "coffin" spot) or potentially kick up to be behind the leader. #6 Furrina (3) and #4 Bonnie Amore (7) will settle in the first four or five, likely in the one-off line. #1 Greatham Boy (9) and #8 Frose (8) are drawn awkwardly and risk being caught three-wide on the pace.
🏃♂️Midfield
#11 Roo Dash One projects to settle mid-pack from a neutral draw. #7 El Salto is drawn very wide (11) and will likely be forced to travel deep in a midfield position or be snagged back to find cover.
🐌Backmarkers
#9 Whitson has a pattern of settling off the pace and will look for a trail into the race from the 600m mark. #10 The Bont is a habitual backmarker, often slow away, and will almost certainly be at the rear of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly. Inside barriers are a distinct advantage for horses with the speed to utilize them, as they can save ground around the single turn. There is no expected bias away from the rail, placing emphasis on securing an economical run. Horses caught wide will be at a significant disadvantage.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The race is on the Synthetic surface, which negates the impact of weather and provides a consistent, all-weather track. This surface typically favours horses with sustained speed and a liking for the artificial going. Proven course-and-distance form is a major positive. The main factor is kickback, which can be a negative for horses buried back on the inside, potentially making a run wider in the straight a preferable option for closers.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1000m start at Ballarat provides a straight run of approximately 400m before the home turn. This gives horses drawn wider a chance to cross, but it still heavily favours those with natural gate speed who can secure a forward position without burning too much energy. The home straight is not excessively long, making it difficult for backmarkers to make up significant ground, especially if the on-pace runners get a comfortable time of it. On-pace runners are typically advantaged over this course and distance.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Benchmark 64 Handicap. The weight scale is designed to level the playing field, making the tactical map and in-race positioning highly influential factors. Horses that are well-weighted and map to get an advantageous run hold a significant edge. The field contains several specialists on this surface, and their ability to handle the synthetic track will be more critical than their form on turf.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
A genuine pace set by #2 Supervise will give most runners their chance, but the race shape strongly favours those positioned on or near the speed. The key will be securing a position in the first 400m. Those who can find the rail or sit one-off with cover will be advantaged. Backmarkers will need the pace to be faster than anticipated or for the leaders to tire, which is a lower probability scenario over the 1000m sprint.
✅Most Advantaged
#3 El Pibe De Oro (3) This horse maps for a perfect run. From barrier 2, he is expected to land in the box seat directly behind the likely leader, #2 Supervise. This allows him to conserve energy and be presented with the first opportunity to challenge at the top of the straight without having spent a penny in the run. His recent form on the surface is strong.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#1 Greatham Boy (1) He carries the top weight of 61.5kg and is drawn wide in barrier 9. He will either have to do a significant amount of work early to cross and find a forward position or risk being caught three or four wide without cover for the entire race. Both scenarios are low-percentage plays and will severely test his stamina at the finish. #10 The Bont (10) is also disadvantaged as a natural backmarker who will likely be last and facing an impossible task to make up the ground in the short straight.
💰Betting Considerations
- Primary Focus: Horses with proven Ballarat Synthetic form who have drawn well to land on the pace. #2 Supervise and #3 El Pibe De Oro fit this profile perfectly and appear to hold a strong tactical advantage.
- Value Opportunities: Runners like #4 Bonnie Amore and #6 Furrina could represent value. They should also secure favourable on-pace positions and have the form to be competitive if the main chances falter.
- Risks: Horses drawn wide, such as #1 Greatham Boy and #7 El Salto, are significant risks and would need to be clearly superior to their rivals to overcome their difficult maps. Backmarkers #9 Whitson and #10 The Bont are betting against the likely race pattern and require pace pressure up front that may not fully eventuate. They are best suited for minor placings in exotic bets, if at all.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Greatham Boy
Supervise
El Pibe De Oro
Bonnie Amore
Cosmic Rhapsody
Furrina
El Salto
Frose
Whitson
The Bont
Roo Dash One
Ready for an Edge?
Join our free newsletter for expert analysis and data-backed selections delivered every Wednesday and Saturday.