Sportsbet Fast Form (Bm58)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 8 at Ballarat Synthetic
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map indicates multiple runners who prefer to race on the speed, several of whom have drawn middle to wide gates. This combination is a classic recipe for a strongly contested tempo as jockeys press forward to avoid being caught wide.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
The lead will be hotly contested. #12 Girls Night is the most likely to push across from the wide gate. #4 Pontmeirion and #6 Summer Night will be right there with it, ensuring none get an easy time in front. One of these will lead, with the other two sitting on its flank.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This is the ideal position in the race. #1 Nordic is perfectly drawn in 4 to land in the box seat or one-out, one-back. #9 Magic Edition will look to use barrier 1 to trail the speed on the fence. #3 Shaalute and #10 Highland Dream will also aim for this position, though the latter risks being caught wide.
🏃♂️Midfield
#8 Very Grateful draws to get a nice run with cover in midfield. #5 Miss Remski and #11 Blaiken map to settle in this group. #2 Hiawatha, dropping back sharply in distance, is expected to travel comfortably in the middle of the pack.
🐌Backmarkers
#7 Lucky Compass is the most likely to be restrained from the wide gate and settle towards the rear of the field, looking to make one run late.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position on the synthetic surface, there is no expected track bias. The inside will not chop out like a turf track. This provides an advantage to horses drawn low like #9 Magic Edition and #1 Nordic, as they can save ground without concern for an inferior surface on the fence. Runners who are forced to cover extra ground will be at a distinct disadvantage.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The race is on the synthetic track, which negates all weather and track condition variables (Good/Soft/Heavy). The surface will provide a fair and consistent footing for all runners. Kickback can sometimes be a factor for horses racing behind the leaders, which can be a minor advantage for those racing on-pace. Stamina will still be tested by the strong tempo, but the surface itself will not favour or hinder any particular running style.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1400m start at Ballarat provides a fair run to the first turn, which gives horses drawn wide a chance to cross. However, with multiple speed horses drawn out, those who can't get across quickly risk being trapped deep. The synthetic surface plays consistently and the long home straight allows for backmarkers to make ground, provided the pace is genuine as predicted. The tempo will be more influential than any track nuance.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Benchmark 58 handicap, a class where speed maps can sometimes be unreliable. However, the presence of several confirmed on-pace runners increases confidence in the prediction of a genuine tempo. The compressed weight scale (62.0kg to 55.5kg) means no single horse is significantly penalised, placing the emphasis on race shape, barrier draw, and jockey tactics.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be run at a genuine, if not strong, tempo, driven by a cluster of on-pace horses drawn from middle to wide barriers. This pressure will ensure there are no soft sectionals and the 1400m will be a true test. The race will likely be won by a horse that enjoys an economical run just behind the speed, conserving energy before launching in the straight. The leaders who engage in an early speed battle will be vulnerable late. Backmarkers will get their chance, but will need to navigate through a large field.
✅Most Advantaged
#1 Nordic maps for a perfect trip. From barrier 4, jockey John Allen can let the speed battle unfold ahead of him and land in a perfect stalking position (the "one-one" or trailing the leader). The horse is in form on this surface and the strong tempo will suit its ability to finish off.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#12 Girls Night faces a formidable task from the outside barrier. To get near the lead, it must burn significant energy, and with other speed horses drawn inside it, there's a high probability of being caught three or four wide without cover. This is an extremely difficult position to win from. #10 Highland Dream and #7 Lucky Compass also face difficult maps from wide alleys.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly suggests focusing on horses that are drawn well and can take a sit off a hot pace.
- High Confidence: #1 Nordic is the clear beneficiary of the predicted race shape and has the ideal map.
- Value Opportunities: A horse like #8 Very Grateful, drawn for a soft midfield run, could offer value. If the leaders collapse as expected, it could be finishing strongly into the placings. #9 Magic Edition is a key player; if it can hold its position on the rail without getting buried, it gets the cheapest run of all and becomes a major threat.
- Risks: The on-pace runners drawn wide are significant risks. It would be brave to back #12 Girls Night or #10 Highland Dream given the energy they are likely to expend early in the race.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Nordic
Hiawatha
Shaalute
Pontmeirion
Miss Remski
Summer Night
Lucky Compass
Very Grateful
Magic Edition
Highland Dream
Blaiken
Girls Night
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