Great Northern Darwin Cup
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 10 at Fannie Bay
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map points towards significant early pressure, ensuring a true test of stamina over the 2050m. There are several contributing factors: - **#3 Hadouken:** A natural leader and previous race winner who is drawn perfectly in barrier 3 to take up his customary front-running role. With Blake Shinn aboard, expect positive tactics. - **#9 Holstein:** His established racing pattern is on-pace. Drawn extremely wide in barrier 14, he has little choice but to press forward aggressively to avoid being caught deep, applying significant pressure to the leader. - **#13 He's Maverick:** Another runner with tactical speed who is drawn wide (12). He will also need to push on to find a forward position, adding to the pressure in the first 400-600 metres.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly. The inside will be the shortest route, placing a premium on drawing a low barrier. Horses that can save ground along the rail, particularly around the tight bends, will have a distinct advantage over those forced to cover extra ground out wide. The Good 3 surface means the inside is unlikely to be chopped up, reinforcing the advantage of an economical run.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Good 3, indicating a firm and fast racing surface. There is no weather forecast to suggest a change. These conditions will suit horses that can travel comfortably at a strong tempo and possess a sharp turn of foot. There is no anticipated track bias. The firm surface combined with a strong pace will ensure that stamina is paramount; horses that aren't genuine stayers at this trip will be found wanting late.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 2050m start at Fannie Bay provides a reasonable run of approximately 400m to the first turn. This allows horses with early speed some opportunity to cross from wider gates, but it comes at the cost of significant energy expenditure. The track is characterized by its tight turns and a relatively short home straight of around 340m. This configuration typically favours horses racing on or near the speed, as it can be difficult to make up substantial ground from the back unless the leaders have gone too hard. A strong tempo, as predicted, will make this a true staying test on this circuit.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As the premier event of the Darwin Carnival, the Great Northern Darwin Cup is an Open Handicap run under high-pressure conditions. The large field and prestige of the race ensure a genuinely run contest with aggressive jockeying for position. The presence of elite interstate jockeys like Nash Rawiller and Blake Shinn adds a layer of tactical sophistication, and they will be acutely aware of the race shape and pace dynamics.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be run at a genuine to strong tempo, driven by the natural leader #3 Hadouken and the pressure applied by wide-drawn on-pacers, most notably #9 Holstein. This pace structure will create a true staying contest where stamina and race position are critical. The short Fannie Bay straight and tight turns mean that horses positioned on or just behind the speed who have an economical run will be at a significant advantage. Horses caught wide without cover or those trying to make up ground from the tail of the field will face a formidable task. The race will likely be won or lost based on who can get the softest run in the first 1400m before launching their claim.
✅Most Advantaged
#7 Prince Jofra The map presents an ideal scenario for this horse. Drawn perfectly in barrier 2, he naturally races on the pace and can land in the coveted box seat, trailing the leaders. He will save crucial ground on the turns while the strong tempo unfolds ahead of him, allowing him to conserve energy for a finishing burst in the short straight.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#9 Holstein His on-pace racing pattern is completely negated by the horror draw in barrier 14. He is forced to either burn a significant amount of energy to cross and find a forward position or risk being trapped three or four wide for the entire journey, a death sentence on this track. #11 Awash (barrier 15) and #15 Unquestionably (barrier 13) are also severely hindered by their wide alleys.
💰Betting Considerations
- High Confidence Profiles: Focus on horses drawn inside barrier 8 who possess tactical speed to hold a forward position without over-exerting. #7 Prince Jofra fits this profile perfectly. #3 Hadouken is also well-mapped but must withstand the early pressure.
- Value Opportunities: A versatile horse like #2 Wolfburn from barrier 9 could represent value. Jockey Jarrod Todd has the option to press forward or take a sit depending on the initial speed, and the horse is a proven performer in this race. #6 Picaroon could be a place chance at odds, benefiting from a soft run on the fence from barrier 4.
- High-Risk Profiles: Be extremely cautious of horses drawn wide that need to be near the lead. #9 Holstein and #13 He's Maverick must overcome significant statistical and tactical disadvantages.
- Backmarker Assessment: Closers like #10 Cacofonix will need the pace to be genuinely destructive. While the tempo will be strong, the track layout still makes their task difficult. They require a perfect ride and for the on-pace runners to falter significantly.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Bear Story
Wolfburn
Hadouken
Motorace
Picaroon
Prince Jofra
Venting
Holstein
Cacofonix
Awash
Pink Panther
He's Maverick
Funnyifitwon
Unquestionably
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