Pointsbet Hcp (58)

With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly, with the inside lanes providing the shortest route home. On a Good 3 surface, this will advantage horses drawn low who possess the tactical speed to hold their position. Runners who can save ground along the rail before peeling out in the straight will be in a prime position. It will be a distinct disadvantage for any horse forced to cover extra ground.

The Good 3 rating indicates a firm and fast racing surface. This will suit horses who can travel comfortably on the speed and produce a sharp turn of foot. The conditions are unlikely to favour backmarkers, as the leaders will not be getting tired on a testing surface and should be able to quicken effectively off the final turn. The genuine pace will test stamina, but class and position will be paramount on this surface.

Fannie Bay is a notoriously tight-turning circuit with a relatively short home straight. The 1600m start provides a reasonable run into the first turn (past the winning post), which gives horses with speed a chance to cross from wider gates. However, failing to find a position early often proves fatal, as being caught wide on the turns is a significant disadvantage. The short straight amplifies the advantage for horses who are on or near the pace at the top of the straight, making it difficult for backmarkers to make up significant ground.

This is a Benchmark 58 Handicap, a lower-grade event where form can be inconsistent. However, the presence of several established on-pace runners gives this speed map a higher degree of confidence. The handicap weight scale means top weights like #2 Star Casino (61.0kg) will be giving significant weight away to lightly-weighted runners like #8 Ariarne (57.0kg), which could prove decisive in the final stages, especially if the pace is strong as predicted.